Star Anise Prices Ease Slightly as Heat Builds in Vietnam and India

Star anise prices from Vietnam and India are drifting slightly lower in mid‑May, with FOB quotes easing by around 0.2–0.3% over the past week, reflecting muted near‑term demand rather than any acute supply shock. Weather in key growing regions is turning seasonally hot and humid but remains within a normal range for now, keeping short‑term crop risk limited. Export‑oriented supply chains in Vietnam continue to function despite elevated shipping costs on some long‑haul lanes, while Indian spice markets are focused more on major traded items like pepper and cardamom, leaving anise relatively quiet.

Prices & Recent Moves

Latest indicative mid‑May FOB/FCA offers converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.92 EUR):

Vietnam remains the key origin in international trade, with production concentrated in northern upland provinces and most output exported as whole dried stars or derived products such as extracts and powders. Recent sample trade data for Vietnamese fresh star anise shows a wide range of transaction values, but current export offers for dried product sit significantly above early‑year spot shipments, underlining continued value for higher quality, food‑safety‑compliant lots.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

On the supply side, Vietnam is targeting growth across its wider agro‑forestry‑fishery exports, signalling policy support for maintaining and expanding agricultural shipments, including niche spices such as star anise. Logistics remain influenced by elevated freight rates and longer routes around the Red Sea, but recent exporter commentary suggests that transit times on key India–Europe and India–Australia lanes have largely stabilised, albeit at a higher cost base.

Indian spice market news over the last few days has focused primarily on black pepper, cardamom and other major spices, where domestic buying is strong ahead of the southwest monsoon and contracts are active on MCX. This points to healthy general demand for spices, but there is no evidence of exceptional tightening in anise specifically; instead, market tone is broadly steady with a slight downward bias in prices as buyers negotiate amid comfortable short‑term availability.

Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions (Next 3 Days)

Vietnam (Hanoi and northern uplands proxy): Forecasts for May 16–18 show hot, humid conditions with highs around 31–35°C, mostly cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoons. Such weather is seasonally normal and supportive of tree growth, with no immediate indication of extreme heat or prolonged dryness that would materially threaten the star anise crop in the very short term.

India (New Delhi and northern belt proxy): The next three days are expected to be very hot, with maximum temperatures around 40–44°C under strong sunshine. While New Delhi is not a core production zone for star anise, this pattern reflects the broader onset of intense pre‑monsoon heat across northern India. If sustained or intensified in producing pockets, excessive heat could stress young trees, but current impacts on marketable supply look limited and more of a medium‑term monitoring point.

Market Drivers & Risks

• Macro spice demand: Ongoing strength in Indian demand for other spices (pepper, cardamom) underlines resilient domestic consumption and export processing activity, but this has not yet translated into aggressive buying in anise.
• Vietnam export strategy: Broader efforts to lift agro exports above USD 74.2 billion by 2026 keep pressure on exporters to sustain volumes and maintain competitiveness, which may cap upside on FOB offers in the near term.
• Freight & logistics: Red Sea–related rerouting continues to elevate shipping costs, but recent feedback from Indian exporters indicates that schedules have become more predictable, reducing near‑term execution risk for anise cargoes to Europe and other long‑haul destinations.
• Weather risk: Normal but hot and humid conditions in Vietnam, and very high temperatures in northern India, are typical for the season; any shift to prolonged heatwaves or heavy storm damage would be more relevant for later 2026 crop expectations than for immediate availability.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

• Short‑term bias: With slight week‑on‑week softening and no acute supply shock, the directional bias for both Vietnamese and Indian star anise over the next few days is mildly bearish to sideways.
• Buyers: End‑users and traders with near‑term coverage gaps can continue to negotiate modest discounts, especially on larger parcels from Vietnam, while keeping an eye on freight adjustments and weather headlines.
• Sellers: Exporters should prioritise quality differentiation and documentation (food safety, residue compliance) to defend premiums, particularly for organic lots, and consider flexible shipment windows to manage logistics bottlenecks.

3‑day regional price indication (directional, EUR/kg FOB/FCA):

• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (conventional & organic star anise): ~6.4–7.1 EUR/kg, with a slight downward to stable tone as buyers test lower bids.
• India – New Delhi FOB (organic star anise): ~5.5–5.7 EUR/kg, expected to trade sideways with limited volumes and no strong domestic impetus.
• EU hub – Netherlands FCA (Syrian anise seeds proxy): ~3.1–3.2 EUR/kg, broadly stable, serving mainly as a benchmark for seed‑type anise rather than star anise itself.