Indian Sesame Prices Edge Softer but Stay Supported on Tight Supply

Indian sesame seed export prices are marginally softer this week, but the overall tone remains broadly steady, underpinned by tight local supply and low carry‑in stocks. With New Delhi scorching under a pre‑monsoon heatwave and the 2026 southwest monsoon expected to start early over Kerala, weather is not yet a direct threat to standing sesame, but will quickly become the key driver for the next kharif crop. Indian offers show a narrow, mostly negative week‑on‑week adjustment in EUR terms. White hulled FOB New Delhi is broadly unchanged, while premium EU‑grade and specialty black grades have slipped slightly. External fundamentals are mixed: domestic edible oil markets are firm, yet international demand for Indian sesame remains only moderate, after earlier reports of weaker exports. In this context, exporters are reluctant to cut aggressively and prefer to keep values near recent ranges.

Prices & Spreads (all approx. EUR/kg)

Using a working FX assumption of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR, current Indian export price indications translate as follows:

Hulled–natural spreads remain historically comfortable, supported by strong margins into sesame oil: Delhi sesame oil is quoted around EUR 1.38/kg equivalent, steady on the week despite softer rival oils.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Recent trade commentary highlights tight Indian sesame supply and low carry‑over stocks after the previous season, which have so far prevented a deeper price correction. However, international demand has not fully recovered. Earlier in the year, Indian sesame exports reportedly fell nearly 20% year‑on‑year in the first two months of 2026, reflecting weaker buying from key destinations.

Forward demand from the EU is expected to gradually improve in the wake of the newly concluded India‑EU free trade agreement, which should, over time, reduce some tariff and non‑tariff barriers for oilseeds and processed products. For now, however, buyers remain price‑sensitive and cautious, taking advantage of small dips but avoiding large long positions ahead of the monsoon-driven new crop outlook in India and competing origins such as Sudan and Tanzania.

Weather & Crop Outlook – India Focus

New Delhi is currently experiencing extreme heat, with maximum temperatures near 42–44°C and minimal rainfall in the next three days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects above‑normal heatwave days in several regions in May, alongside above‑normal rainfall at the national scale for the month.

Crucially for the upcoming sesame kharif sowing window, IMD now expects the southwest monsoon to reach Kerala around 26 May 2026, about five to six days earlier than the climatological normal. An early onset improves prospects for timely soil‑moisture recharge in southern and central India, but there is still uncertainty around rainfall distribution later in the season given ongoing warm‑phase ENSO signals. Near term, weather remains price‑supportive (no crop threat, but high heat limiting arrivals and logistics) rather than outright bullish.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Tight old‑crop supply: Trade sources emphasize low carry‑over stocks, keeping a floor under prices despite only moderate export demand.
• Oilseed complex context: Sesame oil in Delhi is holding firm even as palm and soybean oils show some softness, suggesting crushers are not under pressure to discount seed heavily.
• Macro & trade policy: India’s broader export sector is performing strongly, with record total exports in FY26, and the recently concluded India‑EU FTA should gradually enhance competitiveness of value‑added agri exports, including sesame.
• Monsoon risk premium: With early onset likely but seasonal rainfall still subject to ENSO‑related uncertainty, the market is reluctant to price in a bearish large‑crop scenario at this stage.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3 days, India – EUR terms)

• New Delhi FOB hulled white: Sideways to slightly softer (−0.01 to 0.02 EUR/kg), as heat‑strained physical activity caps spot demand but exporters defend margins.
• Natural white grades: Mild downside bias (−0.01 to 0.03 EUR/kg) on sluggish international buying and some seller interest to move remaining old crop.
• Black and specialty grades: Mostly steady after the recent correction; further downside limited unless global demand weakens abruptly.

Trading Recommendations

• Exporters (India): Use current levels for selective forward sales in premium EU‑grade and black segments rather than chasing business with deep discounts; maintain offers but be flexible on small concessions for nearby shipment.
• Importers (EU, Middle East, East Asia): Consider scaling in purchases on price dips over the next 1–2 weeks, as tight Indian supply and monsoon uncertainty argue against expecting a sharp near‑term collapse.
• Industrial users/crushers in India: With sesame oil prices firm versus other vegoils, hedge coverage through staggered spot‑plus‑nearby purchases; avoid over‑extending coverage before clearer monsoon performance signals in June–July.