Sunflower Seed Prices Edging Higher on Tight Old-Crop Stocks in UA and CN

Sunflower seed prices in both Ukraine and China are firming slightly as old-crop stocks tighten and crushers compete with kernel and oil exporters for limited seed. The price uptrend is gradual rather than explosive, but nearby availability is shrinking, especially in Eastern Europe, while Ukraine remains the key global sunflower oil supplier. Old-crop sunflower seed supplies in Eastern Europe are steadily declining ahead of the new crop, with market participants reporting shrinking stocks and selective farmer selling. In Ukraine, crushers signal a shortage of seed, forcing some plants to idle or switch to rapeseed and soybeans. At the same time, Ukraine is expected to strengthen its role as the world’s top sunflower oil exporter in 2026/27, underlining structurally strong demand for seed. Weather in key Ukrainian regions is generally favorable, with warm conditions and scattered showers, while China’s North China Plain is turning warmer and more humid—overall neutral-to-supportive for the developing 2026 crop.

Prices & Differentials

All prices below are indicative, converted to EUR using ~1 EUR = 1.10 USD where needed and rounded.

Ukraine’s internal FCA basis remains noticeably above FOB levels, reflecting local logistics, higher processing margins and strong oil export demand. Chinese in-shell and kernel prices trade at a clear premium over Ukrainian seed, supported by higher processing costs and robust export and domestic snack demand.

Supply & Demand

In Ukraine, market participants report that many oilseed plants face seed shortages and some have shut down lines or shifted capacity to rapeseed and soybeans, highlighting the tightness in old-crop sunflower. Remaining seed is said to be concentrated with medium-sized farmers, who may accelerate selling as they free up storage and liquidity ahead of the new harvest. This underpins current price firmness for both seeds and kernels.

Despite present tightness, the medium-term outlook points to a strong recovery of sunflower seed and oil production in 2026/27, with USDA and industry analysts expecting Ukraine to slightly outpace Russia in sunflower oil exports (around 5.1 million tonnes vs. 4.85 million tonnes). At the same time, EU buyers remain heavily dependent on Ukrainian sunflower oil imports, keeping a solid demand floor under Ukrainian seed.

On the global side, trade data show Ukraine, Russia and Turkey jointly account for nearly three-quarters of world sunflower oil exports, confirming that Black Sea pricing continues to set the tone for sunflower seeds and derivatives. Reports from European market services underline that sunflower seed stocks across Eastern Europe are shrinking as the season advances, with limited spot offers and a focus on covering nearby kernel and oil commitments.

Weather Outlook (UA & CN)

Weather in Odesa over the next three days is forecast mostly warm with highs around 24–25°C, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and occasional strong winds under a yellow warning—conditions that can briefly slow fieldwork and logistics but are generally beneficial for soil moisture. Kyiv sees similarly warm, partly sunny weather with possible afternoon showers today, before stabilizing into comfortable, dry conditions over the weekend.

In China’s main North China Plain hub around Beijing, current weather features light rain turning into hazy, very warm and humid conditions with highs rising from about 20°C to above 30°C over the next three days. This pattern is seasonally normal and should support vegetative growth for new-crop sunflower while potentially increasing disease pressure if humidity persists. Overall, near-term weather is neutral-to-mildly supportive for yield prospects in both Ukraine and China.

Fundamentals & Risk Drivers

• Old-crop tightness: Shrinking Eastern European stocks and reported seed shortages at some Ukrainian crushers keep nearby basis firm and limit downside for seeds and kernels.
• Export pull: Strong and growing export revenues from higher-value processed products, especially sunflower oil, incentivize continued competition for seed among crushers and exporters in Ukraine.
• Logistics & security: Ukraine’s maritime corridor via Odesa remains operational but exposed to periodic attacks on port infrastructure, maintaining a risk premium in FOB values and freight.
• Substitution with other oilseeds: Some Ukrainian plants switching to rapeseed and soybeans can ease immediate seed demand but also signals structurally high competition among oilseeds, especially with firm rapeseed price benchmarks in Europe.

3-Day Price Outlook (EUR, Directional)

• Ukraine (FOB/FCA, seeds & kernels): With continued seed tightness and supportive weather, prices are likely to hold firm to slightly higher over the next three days (≈+0.5–1% potential), assuming no major escalation of port disruptions.
• China (FOB, in-shell & kernels): Stable to mildly firmer tone expected, supported by robust export and domestic snack demand and seasonally normal weather (+0–0.5% range).

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (EU & Asia): Consider covering near-term sunflower seed and kernel needs promptly, especially from Ukrainian origins, to hedge against further basis strengthening while stocks remain tight.
• Ukrainian farmers & sellers: Old-crop holders can continue gradual selling into the firm market but may retain a minor portion for potential weather- or logistics-driven spikes before new crop comes into full view.
• Crushers & processors: Risk-manage by locking in part of seed supply and oil sales where margins are positive; monitor logistics and security around Odesa closely for any disruptions that could rapidly lift FOB indications.