Russian and Ukrainian Exports Pressure Wheat While US Planting Lags

Paris and Chicago wheat remain under pressure as Russian and Ukrainian exports recover faster than expected, outweighing US planting delays and weak American export demand. Political headwinds around Russian grain flows via Baltic ports add uncertainty but have not yet tightened physical availability. Wheat prices are consolidating in a lower range after recent declines, driven by Europe’s competitiveness loss against aggressively priced Black Sea origins. On Euronext, December 2026 wheat last traded at EUR/t 241.50, while CBOT December 2026 wheat is softer around 638.75 US‑ct/bu. Physical quotations echo this pressure: FOB Odesa wheat (protein min. 11.00%) stands at EUR 0.109/kg, far below French FOB Paris wheat at EUR 0.29/kg. With US winter wheat seeding lagging the five‑year average and diesel prices edging higher, cost support is emerging, but for now ample Black Sea supply and sluggish US exports dominate the picture.

Prices

MATIF wheat in Paris came under pressure on Monday as better‑than‑expected exports from Russia and Ukraine weighed on the market. The December 2026 contract closed at EUR/t 241.50, with the March 2027 position at EUR/t 241.00 and May 2027 at EUR/t 239.75, reflecting a flat to slightly inverse curve in the nearby months.

On the CBOT, soft red winter wheat futures fell to the lowest close in more than two months. December 2026 settled at 638.75 US‑ct/bu, down 0.70% on the day, with the forward curve only modestly higher out to December 2027, indicating limited concern about longer‑term tightness.

Physical price indications confirm the pressure from Black Sea origins. In Ukraine, CPT Odesa wheat grade 2 is quoted at EUR 0.176/kg and grade 3 at EUR 0.156/kg (both CPT), while feed wheat (14% moisture max) is at EUR 0.142/kg CPT. FOB Odesa wheat with protein min. 12.50% is offered at EUR 0.143/kg and protein min. 11.00% at EUR 0.109/kg, clearly undercutting Western European supply.

By contrast, EU and US origins remain markedly higher. German feed wheat (14% moisture max) EXW Drentwede is indicated at EUR 0.247–0.25/kg in recent updates, and French milling wheat 11.00% protein FOB Paris holds at EUR 0.29/kg. US wheat (protein min. 11.50%, CBOT) FOB Washington D.C. is quoted at EUR 0.22/kg, maintaining a premium over Ukrainian export values.

Supply & Demand

Russian wheat exports are running stronger than previously anticipated. Consultancy SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in October by 300,000 t versus last week to 2.8 million t, and also revised September exports up by 200,000 t to 2.8 million t. This represents a significant recovery from August, when exports were only 2.0 million t following the blockade of Black Sea ports.

Despite increasing its short‑term estimates, SovEcon’s revision also highlights underlying volatility in Russia’s logistics. Competing consultancy IKAR has trimmed its October export outlook to 2.6–2.9 million t after previously expecting up to 3.0 million t, suggesting that high export flows are achievable but fragile, depending on port availability and freight conditions.

Russia has partially offset the disruption in Black Sea deep‑water ports by redirecting shipments to Baltic Sea and Caspian Sea ports. However, the governments of the Baltic states are increasingly angered by Russian wheat flows through their ports and are pushing for an EU‑wide ban on transshipping Russian grain via their terminals. If implemented, such a measure would directly threaten these alternative export routes and could tighten global export availability later in the season.

Ukrainian exports also show signs of adaptation. Between 1 July and 17 October, Ukraine exported 3.337 million t of wheat, including 558,000 t in October alone, according to government data. These volumes underscore that alternative export corridors—rail and river routes, as well as smaller ports—can support growing shipments, though they still cannot fully compensate for the loss of Black Sea deep‑water capacity.

To boost flows, Ukraine is intensifying talks with Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary to increase grain transit volumes across their territories. Success on this front would limit potential price spikes in importing regions but may keep pressure on EU border markets, particularly for feed and lower‑quality wheat.

Fundamentals & US Market

US futures came under additional pressure from weak export demand. USDA export inspections for the week to 15 October show just 240,000 t of wheat loaded at US ports, 22% below the previous week and 51% below the same week a year earlier. Season‑to‑date exports since 1 July total 7.219 million t, underscoring the loss of US competitiveness versus cheaper Black Sea origins.

On the production side, the newest USDA Crop Progress report indicates that winter wheat planting in the US reached 63% of intended area by Sunday, 6 percentage points behind the five‑year average and slightly below analyst expectations of 65%. This delay points to some agronomic risk, especially if adverse weather hits later in autumn, potentially affecting establishment and yield prospects.

Energy markets are adding a mild cost‑push element. ICE low‑sulphur gasoil futures rose on Monday, with November 2026 closing at USD/t 1466.50, up 1.19% on the day, and a still‑elevated forward curve through early 2027. Higher diesel prices raise seeding, drying and transport costs for farmers and logistics providers, which may gradually underpin cash wheat prices even in a fundamentally well‑supplied global market.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Current US winter wheat planting delays reflect a mix of local moisture and fieldwork constraints. According to the latest USDA Crop Progress release dated 18 October, winter wheat is 63% planted and 39% emerged, both just below the five‑year averages. 

Short‑range outlooks from the US Climate Prediction Center for late October point to mixed precipitation patterns across the central and southern Plains, with neither persistent drought relief nor widespread excessive rainfall clearly dominant.  This suggests that while localized moisture issues can persist, no immediate nationwide weather shock is visible that would significantly tighten US new‑crop prospects in the next 10 days.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers: Continue to diversify origin mix, taking advantage of competitively priced Ukrainian CPT/FOB offers where logistics and policy allow, but monitor EU discussions on Russian transit through Baltic ports, which could abruptly change relative spreads.
• EU producers: Consider incremental hedging of 2026/27 output on MATIF around the current EUR/t 240–242 range, as strong Russian exports and recovering Ukrainian flows still cap rallies, despite US planting delays.
• Feed buyers in Western Europe: Use current weakness in German EXW and Ukrainian CPT/feed wheat prices (EUR 0.142–0.25/kg range) to extend coverage into Q1 2027, while keeping some flexibility for potential policy‑driven supply shocks later in the season.
• Speculative traders: Short bias on CBOT remains justified while US export inspections stay weak and Black Sea offers dominate; however, keep tight stops given the binary risk around EU sanctions discussions and any renewed disruptions in Russian or Ukrainian port logistics.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication

• MATIF wheat (Dec 2026): Sideways to slightly softer around EUR/t 241.50 as long as Russian and Ukrainian export news remains benign.
• CBOT SRW (Dec 2026): Mild downside bias below 640 US‑ct/bu amid weak US export demand and absence of major weather threats.
• Black Sea physical (UA Odesa CPT/FOB): Stable to slightly weaker in EUR terms, given still‑ample regional supply and strong competition among exporters.