Sesame Market: China’s Cheaper Imports Reshape Global Trade Flows

Chinese demand remains the key stabilising force in a sesame market characterised by sharply lower prices and rapidly shifting trade flows towards new, more competitive origins. Global sesame prices remain under downward pressure as China’s import bill shrinks despite broadly stable volumes. The strong increase in June arrivals shows that crushers and processors are ready to step back in when prices become attractive, reinforcing China’s role as the main demand anchor. At the same time, a pronounced re‑allocation of Chinese buying towards Pakistan, Ethiopia and Brazil is reshaping origin competition, while some traditional African suppliers lose share. Current spot indications suggest a soft to slightly bearish tone, but further Chinese buying and new‑crop developments could quickly alter the balance.

Prices

During January–June 2026, the average sesame purchase price for Chinese imports fell by about 20% to roughly USD 1,125/t, driving a 21% drop in import value despite only a 2% decline in volume. This confirms substantial downward pressure on international sesame prices, with buyers achieving significantly cheaper coverage than a year earlier.

Spot indications align with this softer tone. Converting to EUR, recent offers for hulled sesame from India and Chad mostly range around EUR 1.35–1.55/kg FCA/FOB equivalent, with natural Egyptian sesame around EUR 1.30–1.35/kg. The modest week‑on‑week easing across several Indian grades signals a market that is still searching for a floor rather than entering a clear recovery phase.

Supply & Demand

China imported 700,214 tonnes of sesame in the first half of 2026, just 2% below the same period last year. However, the 21% fall in import value shows that demand has not weakened materially in volume terms; instead, lower prices and aggressive origin competition have allowed buyers to secure similar quantities at far lower cost.

June data are particularly telling: imports jumped 43% year on year to 113,564 tonnes while average prices stayed around 19% below last year’s level. This pattern indicates that Chinese crushers and processors tactically accelerated purchases once international prices dipped to more competitive levels, effectively using price weakness to rebuild coverage.

Origin Competition & Trade Flows

Niger remains China’s largest sesame supplier with 254,914 tonnes shipped in January–June, though its volume declined compared with last year. The more striking trend is the surge from emerging suppliers. Pakistan more than doubled shipments to 96,667 tonnes, and Ethiopia expanded exports to 83,475 tonnes, consolidating their roles as key low‑cost origins.

Brazil’s performance is the most dramatic: its exports to China soared to 55,653 tonnes from only 1,444 tonnes a year earlier. This leap underscores Brazil’s fast‑growing role in global sesame trade and its ability to offer competitively priced, reliable supplies. In contrast, Togo’s shipments to China decreased, reflecting how higher‑cost or less competitive origins are losing share as Chinese buyers diversify and prioritise price.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Price elasticity of Chinese demand: Stable import volumes combined with sharply lower unit values illustrate that Chinese sesame demand is highly price‑responsive. Once prices dropped around one‑fifth year on year, buyers significantly stepped up activity.
• Diversification of origins: The shift towards Pakistan, Ethiopia and Brazil indicates a strategic effort by Chinese importers to reduce dependency on a few African origins and secure more flexible, cost‑efficient sourcing.
• Margin support for crushers: Lower raw material prices improve crushing and processing margins, which should underpin ongoing Chinese demand provided product off‑take in food and oil channels remains steady.
• Pressure on traditional exporters: Countries such as Togo, and to a lesser extent Niger, face stiffer competition. Without price adjustments or quality improvements, they risk further loss of market share.

Short‑Term Outlook & Weather

With Chinese import volumes only marginally lower and June purchases surging, the near‑term risk balance for prices is slightly skewed to the downside but with limited room for further sharp falls. As additional new‑crop supplies from Pakistan, Africa and South America enter the pipeline, origin competition will likely remain intense, keeping international offers under pressure.

Weather conditions in key producing regions will be crucial for the next 1–2 months, particularly for late‑season African crops and South American plantings. Any emerging concerns on yields or quality could quickly stabilise or even lift prices, given the relatively strong responsiveness of Chinese demand once prices move to attractive levels.

Trading Outlook

• Importers/industrial users: Consider layering in additional coverage while prices remain around 20% below last year’s levels, focusing on flexible shipment windows to capture any further downside.
• Exporters from new‑growth origins (Pakistan, Ethiopia, Brazil): Maintain competitive pricing but avoid excessive discounting; recent Chinese buying behaviour suggests solid volume potential at current levels.
• Traditional African suppliers: Review pricing and quality strategies to defend market share in China, where buyers are clearly willing to substitute towards more competitive origins.
• Speculative participants: The combination of low prices and resilient Chinese volumes favours a cautious, buy‑on‑dips approach rather than aggressive short positions.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (in EUR)