Sesame market holds firm as India leads gains and Brazil crop shrinks

Global sesame prices remain firm, underpinned by tight availabilities in key exporters India, Sudan and Brazil, while high Chinese port stocks and buyer price sensitivity cap sharp upside. Overall, the market trades with a mild bullish bias as supply risks build into the second half of 2026. The current sesame market is characterised by a tug-of-war between heavy inventories in China and tightening fundamentals in India, Africa and South America. In India, firm domestic and export demand is absorbing limited arrivals, while Sudanese carryover has largely vanished and Brazil faces a sharply smaller crop. Tanzania and Mozambique are still early in their seasons, with policy and pricing frictions slowing export flows. Import demand from Asia, including South Korea and China, remains present but cautious, keeping trade active yet price-sensitive.

Prices & Regional Dynamics

India remains the key price driver. Premium white sesame is indicated around USD 1,287–1,550/t, with premium black at USD 2,061–2,105/t. Average export-oriented levels are roughly USD 1,304/t in Gujarat, USD 1,142/t in Maharashtra and USD 1,141/t in Uttar Pradesh, reflecting broad firmness across producing states. Steady buying from South Korea and other Asian destinations is helping to clear incremental arrivals, especially in Gujarat where daily inflows are about 60,000–65,000 bags.

In Africa, Sudanese prices are firm with FOB first-grade Al-Gadarif near USD 1,650/t and commercial grades around USD 1,580/t, supported by the near exhaustion of carryover stocks. Tanzania’s auction market is active and well-bid for premium grades, though a gap persists between auction indications and Chinese buying ideas. In Mozambique, local prices hover near USD 1,200/t, but a government minimum export price of USD 1,400/t plus a 2.5% export levy is curbing competitiveness and slowing export interest.

South America adds further support. In Brazil, the new harvest has just started, yet domestic sesame prices have already risen about 10% from the start of the harvest amid concerns that the 2026 crop could be up to 50% smaller than last season due to area shifts to sorghum and black beans. Paraguay shows the opposite pattern in volume and value: January–March 2026 exports fell 18% year-on-year to 3,825 t, but the average export price climbed to USD 1,471/t, with March alone at USD 1,789/t despite a 51% volume drop, signalling buyers’ willingness to pay more for reliable origins.

Against this, China is sitting on high inventories. Stocks at Qingdao Port in week 23 total about 363,647 t, of which 310,747 t are in standard warehouses and 52,900 t in non-standard facilities. These ample supplies in China temper the global price structure, as local buyers are cautious and highly selective on origin and quality, slowing new import commitments even with zero-tariff access granted to Tanzanian sesame from 1 May 2026.

Spot Indications in EUR

Based on recent transactional indications and an approximate USD/EUR rate of 1.09, the following table offers an orientation range for key reference qualities (all values in EUR/t):

Recent commercial offers confirm this firmness: non-organic hulled sesame from India and Chad typically ranges around EUR 1,200–1,350/t FCA/FOB for mainstream EU-grade qualities, while high-end black and golden types command significant premiums. The combination of higher replacement costs in Brazil and Sudan, plus strong Indian basis values, is gradually feeding into European and Asian import parity levels.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

On the supply side, India’s arrivals remain limited despite increased flows in Gujarat, and steady offtake from domestic crushers and exporters keeps pipeline stocks tight. Sudan is effectively between crops, with most of last season’s sesame already marketed, and the next campaign not expected to bring larger volumes until December 2026. Brazil is the most important structural risk: sharply reduced planted area suggests significantly lower export availability just as global buyers look to diversify away from conflict-affected or policy-heavy origins.

Tanzania and Mozambique are in the early-to-mid stages of their marketing seasons. Tanzania is currently shipping mainly from central and western regions, with southern volumes still building; the new zero-tariff regime into China should, in theory, boost flows, but the present price gap is slowing that effect. Mozambique’s tight export controls — minimum price and levy — are diverting some demand to other African origins and to India, even as only 15–20% of its crop has surfaced, implying potential later-season selling pressure if policies are not adjusted.

On the demand side, Asia remains the anchor. China’s large port stocks and cautious procurement keep import demand lumpy but ever-present, especially for specific quality segments. South Korea and other Asian buyers continue to book Indian sesame, particularly higher-grade white and black, supporting a firm export basis. Turkey’s imports rose 18% year-on-year to 71,399 t in January–March 2026, yet the average import price fell 25% to about USD 1,201/t, reflecting earlier availability of competitively priced origins such as Brazil, Chad, Niger and Sudan and underscoring the market’s price sensitivity.

Outlook & Weather Considerations

Weather across key producing belts in India and East Africa will be critical in the coming weeks as sowing and early crop development progress. Normal to slightly above-normal monsoon conditions in India would ease medium-term supply concerns, but any delays or regional deficits in Gujarat and adjoining states could quickly tighten the global balance further. In Sudan and parts of Tanzania and Mozambique, seasonal rainfall performance will influence planting decisions and yield prospects for the late-2026 export window.

Fundamentally, the balance tilts mildly bullish into Q3 2026. High Chinese inventories and policy-induced frictions in Mozambique and Tanzania act as stabilisers against runaway prices, but structural tightness in Sudan and Brazil, coupled with firm Indian replacement costs, should keep floor levels elevated. Price volatility is likely to increase around key crop updates from Brazil and Sudan and any change in Chinese buying pace from Qingdao stocks.

Trading Outlook (Next 4–6 Weeks)

• Importers (EU/Asia): Consider covering a portion of Q3–early Q4 needs at current levels, especially for premium white and black Indian grades and Sudanese first grade, as downside appears limited while upside risk persists if Brazil’s crop underperforms further.
• Exporters (India, Sudan, Brazil): Maintain firm offer ideas but stay flexible on shipment windows to capture sporadic spikes in Chinese and Turkish demand; quality differentiation will be rewarded as Chinese buyers remain selective.
• Industry users: For high-spec bakery and confectionery demand, lock in part of requirements from diversified origins (India + at least one African supplier) to mitigate origin-specific policy and logistics risks.

Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day View)

• India (FOB New Delhi, EU-grade hulled, EUR/t): Mostly steady to slightly firmer in a ≈ 1,250–1,350 range as exporters test higher offers against steady Asian demand.
• Sudan (FOB Port Sudan, EUR/t): Firm, with first-grade indications near ≈ 1,500–1,550 and limited offer volume; no major softening expected in the very short term.
• Europe (CIF main ports, hulled sesame, EUR/t): Stable to marginally higher, tracking firmer replacement costs from India and constrained African offers; buyers likely to step in on any minor dips.