Sesame Market Holds Firm as Supply Constraints Offset Softer Asian Demand
Concise August sesame market analysis: tight supplies in Brazil, Ethiopia and Pakistan offset China’s stocks and softer Japanese demand, keeping prices supported.
Prices & Spreads
China’s port inventories have not translated into broad price weakness at origins. In Gujarat, white sesame trades around USD 1,369–1,506/t, while premium black sesame fetches USD 2,024–2,262/t, both indicating continued buyer willingness to pay for quality and reliability of supply. Converting with an indicative rate of 1.09 USD/EUR, this implies roughly EUR 1,256–1,382/t for white and EUR 1,857–2,075/t for premium black material.
Elsewhere, Brazilian export indications near USD 1,350/t CNF equate to roughly EUR 1,239/t, while Ethiopian FOB levels at USD 1,380–1,400/t correspond to about EUR 1,266–1,284/t. Pakistan’s firm domestic prices, around USD 940–1,020/t (approximately EUR 862–936/t), underscore how delayed harvest and moisture issues are preventing any significant downside. Compared with these origin benchmarks, recent Indian export offers for standard hulled and natural grades in New Delhi in the EUR 1,300–1,550/t band remain competitive, especially for EU‑grade hulled product.
Supply & Demand Balance
China’s total sesame inventory at Qingdao Port reached 351,948 t as of 3 August, with Niger supplying the largest share (101,914 t), followed by Togo and Mali (46,157 t combined), Ethiopia (34,376 t), Pakistan (32,020 t) and Brazil (25,804 t). These comfortable stocks provide a buffer for Chinese crushers and traders, limiting the urgency for aggressive nearby purchases but not fully capping global prices due to upstream constraints.
On the demand side, Japan imported 86,141 t of sesame seed in January–June 2026, a 5% year‑on‑year decline. Import value dropped 20% to USD 120.8 million, with average import prices falling 16% to USD 1,402/t (around EUR 1,286/t). June arrivals were particularly weak at 16,665 t (‑18% y/y), with the monthly average price down to roughly USD 1,186/t (about EUR 1,088/t). Japan’s sesame oil exports also fell 11% to 5,079 t, signaling softer regional demand and some downstream margin pressure.
Regional Fundamentals
India
India’s kharif sesame acreage expanded to 927,000 ha by 31 July, up from 817,000 ha a year earlier. However, this headline increase masks a sharp decline in planted area in Gujarat, a key supplier of premium white sesame. The resulting tightness in top‑quality white and black material is keeping price differentials wide versus standard grades and limiting the potential for significant export expansion in these niches.
For bulk export business, India still offers a broad range of natural and hulled sesame for both conventional and EU‑grade specifications. Recent domestic and FOB indications suggest a mostly sideways price pattern since mid‑July, with slight softening in some hulled grades offset by firm values for specialty black and EU‑compliant product. Buyers focused on food‑service and retail blends continue to see India as a key balancing origin.
Brazil
Brazilian sesame production is estimated at only 200,000–220,000 t after reduced acreage, delayed planting, irregular rainfall and weaker yields. With harvesting about 90% complete, the crop size is now largely set, and restricted supplies are limiting exporters’ ability to accept fresh contracts at current price ideas. This supply tightness supports Brazilian CNF values around USD 1,350/t (circa EUR 1,239/t) and reduces downside risk for competing African and Asian origins.
East Africa & Pakistan
In Ethiopia, sesame prices strengthened to USD 1,380–1,400/t FOB (approximately EUR 1,266–1,284/t) on the back of low carryover stocks and cautious farmer selling. Exportable volumes remain limited, especially in higher‑spec lots, which helps underpin the broader East African price structure. Neighbouring suppliers are watching Ethiopian values closely, as any further rally could improve their own price realization.
Pakistan is also experiencing supply‑side friction. New‑crop arrivals are slow due to rainfall‑induced harvesting delays and moisture issues, keeping domestic prices firm around USD 940–1,020/t (roughly EUR 862–936/t). This restricts its ability to compete aggressively on volume in nearby markets and removes a potential source of short‑term pressure on global prices.
Weather & Crop Outlook
Weather remains a pivotal risk factor for the coming weeks. In India, the late monsoon trajectory will determine final yields and quality, particularly in states beyond Gujarat where acreage has expanded. Any prolonged dry spell or excessive rainfall during pod‑filling could erode the expected production gains implied by higher sown area.
In Brazil, the main weather damage is already reflected in current production estimates and yield outcomes. For Pakistan and parts of East Africa, intermittent rainfall continues to pose quality risks, especially for export‑oriented lots requiring tight moisture and purity specifications. Overall, while no immediate large‑scale supply shock is apparent, the balance of weather risk for August is skewed slightly to the bullish side.
Trading Outlook & Short‑Term View
- Merchandisers and importers: Prioritize coverage of premium white and black sesame from India and Ethiopia for Q4 needs, as structural tightness in these segments is unlikely to ease quickly despite broader acreage gains in India.
- Industrial users: Consider diversifying origin mix with Brazilian and Pakistani material where quality allows, but be prepared for limited volumes and firm basis levels due to production constraints and slow new‑crop arrivals.
- Buy‑side timing: With China well supplied and Japanese demand softer, spot buyers may still find selective dips; however, the upside risk from weather and low carryover in key origins argues for at least partial forward coverage into late Q3 and early Q4.