Sesame market splits: Pakistan’s strong crop meets African shortfalls

The global sesame market is entering the 2026-27 cycle with increasingly divergent origin fundamentals: Pakistan is poised to ship a larger and better-quality crop, while Sudan, Tanzania and Mozambique face constrained supply. At the same time, China’s import volumes remain solid but average prices have dropped sharply, underlining buyers’ price sensitivity despite some demand strength from South Korea. A fragmented supply landscape is colliding with differentiated demand signals. East African production losses, new regulatory costs and logistics issues are tightening high-quality offers from some African origins, even as Pakistan and Chad step up export potential. On the demand side, China is keeping import volumes broadly stable but paying around one-fifth less than a year ago, while South Korea’s August buying surge hints at renewed interest in premium and processed segments. Price formation over the coming months will depend on how aggressively Pakistan offers new-crop, how far Chinese buyers push for discounts, and whether East African weather and logistics risks materialise into deeper shortages.

Prices

Physical sesame prices reflect the tug-of-war between ample competitive supply from Asia and tightening availability in parts of Africa. In Europe, Chad-origin hulled sesame (FCA Berlin, 99.95% purity) is currently indicated at EUR 1.51/kg, unchanged on the latest quote and broadly stable over the past month after a modest easing from earlier levels.

Indian FOB levels show a slight firming bias in recent updates: hulled sesame 99.90% purity (FOB New Delhi) last traded around EUR 1.45/kg, up from earlier September indications, while premium black sesame such as "super z black" 99.95% purity (FOB New Delhi) stands near EUR 1.94/kg. This underscores ongoing differentiation between mainstream white grades and specialty or colour-specific segments.

Supply & Demand

The global supply picture is highly fragmented. Sudan’s 2026 sesame output is projected at 320,000–390,000 tonnes, well below the roughly 485,000 tonnes produced in 2025. Export performance so far in 2026 has been relatively strong at about 113,000 tonnes in the first half, supported by carry-over stocks from a larger prior crop. However, lower new-crop output combined with ongoing weather, logistical and policy uncertainties will likely cap Sudan’s export capacity later in the season.

Pakistan is the key counterweight on the supply side. Despite acreage falling by an estimated 10–15%, improved hybrids and better agronomy are expected to push 2026 production up to 325,000–350,000 tonnes, versus about 310,000 tonnes in 2025. Yields have risen to roughly 370–400 kg per acre from around 320 kg previously, and quality has improved across FFA, moisture and food-safety parameters. With around 230,000 tonnes exported in 2025 and China taking roughly 60–61% of that volume, Pakistan is well positioned to capture incremental demand if export policy remains supportive.

Elsewhere in Africa, production stress is evident. Burkina Faso’s 2025 output ended closer to 180,000 tonnes versus an initial 214,000-tonne forecast after late rainfall cut yields to about 400 kg/hectare. Low prices risk discouraging acreage in the coming cycle, even as domestic policy has tightened via new licensing and storage-compliance rules. Togo’s relatively small own crop of 25,000–30,000 tonnes masks its greater role as a transit hub for Burkina-origin sesame, giving regional trade policy and taxation in Burkina outsized influence on West African flows.

Tanzania’s 2026 sesame supply is estimated at only 150,000–155,000 tonnes, with weather-related yield losses reducing availability of both mixed and premium southern grades. Mozambique’s position is even tighter: the 2026 crop has dropped sharply to around 50,000–60,000 tonnes, more than 50,000 tonnes below the previous season, following poor crop development and weather uncertainty. Mandatory local testing, a 2.5% export duty, fuel shortages and higher internal freight have further squeezed exportable supplies and raised CNF values.

Ethiopia’s production is assessed at 200,000–220,000 tonnes, but persistent conflict and political disruption continue to undermine its historic benchmark role for high-quality sesame, even as buyers such as Israel still pay premiums for select origins. Chad, by contrast, is emerging more clearly on the export map with an estimated 220,000-tonne 2026 crop and around 90% of production destined for overseas markets, though high export taxes, logistics costs and currency volatility remain important constraints.

On the demand side, China’s imports underline the current price-sensitive environment. January–July 2026 sesame imports reached 810,563 tonnes, effectively flat versus 811,104 tonnes a year earlier, but import value fell 19% and the average price slumped to USD 1,144/MT from about USD 1,404/MT in the same period of 2025. July arrivals of 110,349 tonnes were up 10% year-on-year, yet average prices were still 7% lower, reinforcing the picture of buyers pushing aggressively for discounts.

South Korea provides a contrasting signal. While January–August 2026 imports of approximately 44,413 tonnes were down 11% year-on-year, August imports alone surged 89% to 14,332 tonnes, with the average August import price rising to around USD 1,662/MT. China is South Korea’s largest supplier so far in 2026 at close to 19,290 tonnes, followed by the US, India, Pakistan and Nigeria, suggesting a diversified sourcing pattern and willingness to pay premiums for quality and compliance in specific segments.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals are shaped by a shift in where reliable exportable surplus is located. Pakistan’s better yields and quality, coupled with Chad’s growing export role, are offsetting some of the losses from Sudan, Tanzania and Mozambique, but not necessarily in the exact grades or logistics profiles that high-end buyers prefer. Historically premium origins such as Ethiopia’s Humera and Wollega still command strong recognition, but supply instability and compliance risks limit their use as benchmark pricing references.

Recent weather outlooks for the broader Sudan and South Sudan region point to mixed rainfall conditions through September, with localised heavy showers and dry spells that can hamper late-season field operations and transport rather than significantly altering the current crop size. In coastal East Africa, short-term forecasts show seasonally dry-to-transition conditions across Tanzania and northern Mozambique ahead of the next rains, keeping yield recovery prospects limited in the immediate term and maintaining a generally tight East African balance.

On the policy and cost side, Mozambique’s mandatory local testing regime, incremental testing charges of roughly USD 7–9/MT, and higher internal fuel and transport costs have raised CNF values by an estimated USD 60–80/MT. Burkina Faso’s August 5 regulatory changes, requiring licensing, volume declarations and new storage compliance, may slow internal trade and exports in the near term, particularly for smaller traders, potentially supporting prices for compliant, well-documented stocks. Pakistan’s contemplation of a Minimum Export Price for sesame introduces additional uncertainty for forward sales, with any formal implementation likely to determine how much of its higher-quality crop remains competitive into China, Korea and the Middle East.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Looking into late 2026 and early 2027, the sesame market is likely to remain directionally balanced to mildly firm, with strong geographic dispersion in fundamentals. Pakistan’s new-crop export pace and policy decisions will be central to how much downward pressure is exerted on global prices, especially for mainstream white and hulled grades. China’s demonstrated willingness to maintain volume while paying substantially lower average prices suggests that any sharp rally may be capped unless weather or logistics further disrupt East African supply.

At the same time, constrained crops and higher compliance costs in Sudan, Tanzania, Mozambique and parts of West Africa, combined with quality-linked demand from markets like Japan, Israel and South Korea, should continue to support premiums for traceable, pesticide-compliant and speciality grades. Türkiye’s structural supply deficit and reduced availability from some East African origins are likely to make it a more active price maker in West African trade hubs, including Burkina Faso and Togo, over the coming months.

Trading outlook

• Buyers in Europe and Asia: Consider forward coverage of high-quality African and premium black sesame grades while availability from Tanzania, Mozambique and Ethiopia remains constrained, accepting modest premiums to secure compliance and logistics reliability.
• China-focused traders: Expect continued aggressive price negotiation from Chinese buyers; structure offers from Pakistan and Chad with flexible shipment windows and quality premiums rather than across-the-board price cuts.
• Origin exporters in Pakistan and Chad: Use improved quality and yield to target value-sensitive but quality-conscious markets such as South Korea and the Middle East, while monitoring any Minimum Export Price or tax policy shifts that could affect competitiveness.
• West African stakeholders: Anticipate tighter regulatory enforcement in Burkina Faso and higher influence from Turkish demand; maintain robust documentation and storage compliance to preserve export eligibility and pricing power.

3-day price indication & directional view