Sesame Prices Firm in India and Egypt as Monsoon Lags but Demand Holds

Indian and Egyptian sesame prices are edging higher in late June, supported by tight farmer selling, steady export demand and weather that is hot but not yet crop-threatening. With India’s monsoon delayed and Egypt locked in a very hot, dry spell, nearby downside looks limited and buyers should expect a slightly firmer tone into early July. The sesame complex is trading with a broadly firm bias across key origins. In India, mandi prices have stabilised to slightly higher levels month-on-month, helped by a pick-up in domestic and export inquiries, while exporters report FOB offers concentrated in a relatively narrow range. In Egypt, hot and very dry weather is set to persist across Upper Egypt, but short-term conditions remain within the normal seasonal pattern, keeping production risk modest for now. Overall, the market feels balanced rather than tight, yet weather and delayed kharif sowing in India argue for a mildly supportive bias near term.

Prices

All price indications converted approximately at EUR 1 = USD 1.07.

Indian mandi data for sesamum shows average spot levels around INR 12,100/quintal this week, broadly consistent with recent weeks and implying no major correction. Broader international benchmarks describe 2026 sesame prices as “resilient”, with Indian FOB offers clustered between roughly EUR 1.68–3.55/kg depending on grade and hulling.

Supply & Demand

In India, early kharif 2026 oilseed sowing, including sesame, is being constrained by a weak June monsoon. The all-India rainfall deficit is reported near 41%, slowing planting for several crops and increasing dependence on a stronger July recovery. This reinforces farmer reluctance to forward-sell aggressively at current price levels.

Export demand for Indian sesame is described as firm but not overheated, with buyers in the Middle East, Europe and East Asia steadily covering nearby needs. Processors report enough origin competition (Africa, Latin America) to prevent a classic shortage, yet limited carryover stocks and a small decline in 2026 acreage in some spice and seed crops keep the tone supported.

In Egypt, sesame sits within a broader oilseed and spice complex where local availability is adequate, but logistical and financing conditions encourage exporters to seek incremental price improvements rather than heavy discounting. No major new crop or policy shocks have been reported over the past three days, leaving trade flows largely routine.

Weather & Crop Conditions (EG, IN)

Egypt (Upper Egypt / Aswan corridor): Forecasts for June 27–29 indicate maximum temperatures around 37–39°C with no rainfall, continuing the very hot, dry pattern of recent days. This is seasonally normal for sesame in Upper Egypt; irrigation is the key constraint, not rainfall, so immediate yield risk remains limited.

India (sesame belts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh): The southwest monsoon’s northward advance is currently lagging, with the Northern Limit of Monsoon still south of parts of the main sesame belt as of June 26. National guidance points to below-normal June rainfall and a heavy reliance on July for catch-up, which may compress the sowing window for kharif oilseeds in some districts. For now this is a latent bullish factor rather than an immediate crop-loss story.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Global sesame fundamentals in 2026 are characterised as balanced: solid demand from food and confectionery, but enough regional supply to avoid a shortage.
• In India, spice and seed market reports highlight tight arrivals and firm export demand for several small-seed crops, which indirectly supports sesame sentiment.
• Limited panic selling and relatively stable mandi prices suggest farmers and stockists see little value in discounting further at present levels.
• Speculative interest appears moderate; most recent commentary points to cautious buying rather than aggressive stock-builds as buyers watch monsoon progress and currency moves.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

Trading Recommendations (near term)

• Importers (EU / MENA): Consider covering a portion of Q3 needs now while prices are firm but not spiking; delayed Indian sowing and continued hot, dry Egyptian weather argue against waiting for significantly lower offers.
• Origin sellers (India, Egypt): Use current firmness to scale in sales on rallies, but retain some upside exposure in case July monsoon disappoints further or if heat intensifies in key African origins.
• Industrial users: Maintain comfortable working stocks into July; avoid over-buying, as the global balance still looks adequate, but do not run inventories too tight given weather and logistics risks.

3-Day Regional Price Direction (EUR-based)

• India (New Delhi FCA/FOB, white & hulled sesame): Bias: steady to slightly higher over June 27–29. Weather and sowing delays plus firm export demand likely keep offers within ~±1–2% of current EUR/kg levels.
• Egypt (Cairo FOB, natural & golden sesame): Bias: stable to firm. Hot, dry but seasonally normal conditions and limited fresh supply news support current EUR/kg indications with a mild upward skew.