Sesame Seeds Hold Firm as India’s Kharif Risks Meet Stable Egypt, Paraguay Supply

Indian and Egyptian sesame seed prices are stable in late July, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves despite a still‑lagging Indian monsoon and emerging El Niño risks. Short‑term fundamentals look balanced, but any further weather stress on India’s kharif oilseeds could tighten supplies and support prices into August. Sesame markets across India (IN), Egypt (EG) and Paraguay (PY) are currently trading sideways, with FOB and FCA quotes broadly unchanged over the last week. India’s kharif sowing is still trailing last year due to a weaker monsoon start, but recent rainfall has narrowed the gap, leaving oilseed acreage slightly below 2025 levels and keeping a mild weather‑risk premium in prices. Egypt’s hot but seasonally normal weather and Paraguay’s mild, humid conditions imply no immediate production shocks, while trade flows into key Asian destinations remain orderly. With flat nearby demand and adequate inventories, short‑term price direction will hinge mainly on India’s rainfall pattern over the next 2–3 weeks.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR/t (1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR) for comparability.

Indian hulled EU‑grade sesame prices have eased slightly since mid‑July but stabilised in the last three sessions, in line with a broader pattern of kharif crop uncertainty but no acute supply squeeze. Egypt and Paraguay quotes show no fresh volatility, consistent with normal seasonal trade into Asia and the Middle East.

Supply & Demand Snapshot (IN, EG, PY)

India (IN): Kharif sowing for 2026 remains behind last year’s pace due to a weak start to the monsoon, with overall kharif acreage still around 6–7% below normal and roughly 16% lower than 2025 as of mid‑July. Oilseeds are highlighted as particularly vulnerable under the current El Niño‑linked rainfall deficit, which raises medium‑term yield risk for sesame.

Recent rains in parts of central and western India have helped narrow the sowing gap across kharif crops, but rainfall distribution remains uneven and many districts are still classified as deficit. Farmers appear to be prioritising higher‑value oilseeds and soybean where price signals are attractive, which supports current sesame price floors despite flat spot demand from some Asian buyers.

Egypt (EG): Egypt is a smaller sesame origin globally but an important regional supplier, with current trade policy geared towards boosting agri‑export competitiveness rather than imposing new restrictions. Local sesame supply into export channels is steady, supported by high domestic food inflation and a weaker currency, which keeps FOB offers competitive in EUR terms. No fresh policy measures specific to sesame have been reported in the last three days.

Paraguay (PY): USDA’s recent oilseed outlook continues to underline ample exportable supplies from Paraguay’s 2025/26 oilseed complex, including sesame, helped by a larger crop and strong demand from Brazil. Historic Japanese import data also show Paraguay as a consistent mid‑tier supplier. With no new weather or policy shocks reported this week, Paraguay remains a price‑competitive alternative origin, especially for organic and high‑spec lots.

Weather Outlook (Next 3 Days)

India – New Delhi / key north‑Indian sesame belt: Mostly cloudy and very warm, with highs around 33–36°C and intermittent light showers through 27 July. Rainfall volumes are not extreme but should modestly support late sowing and early crop establishment where moisture had been lacking.

Egypt – Cairo / Nile valley: Very hot and dry conditions dominate, with maximum temperatures between 34–41°C and no meaningful rainfall expected. This is seasonally normal for irrigated sesame and does not currently threaten yields, provided irrigation water remains available.

Paraguay – Asunción / sesame areas: Humid, with temperatures rising from mid‑20s to around 30°C and scattered showers or thunderstorms in the next 48 hours. As it is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, these conditions mainly affect off‑season fieldwork and logistics rather than in‑crop sesame, so market impact is limited.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Indian monsoon & El Niño risk: A strengthening El Niño and below‑normal rainfall across large parts of rain‑fed India raise yield risk for kharif oilseeds, including sesame, if August rains disappoint. This underpins current price stability and limits downside.
• Competing oilseeds: Soybean sowing has progressed well and is expected to exceed last year’s area, attracting part of the oilseed acreage. This may cap any immediate acreage surge in sesame but also helps stabilise broader oilseed price relations.
• Trade & logistics: Export logistics from Indian ports such as Nhava Sheva remain functional, with some anecdotal reports of tighter scrutiny on documentation and slight freight firmness, but no acute bottlenecks for sesame specifically.
• Demand: Global sesame demand from key consumers (China, Japan, Middle East) appears steady rather than exuberant, with buyers showing some price sensitivity and a preference for spot/nearby coverage rather than aggressive forward booking, consistent with the current flat price curve.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (importers in MEA, EU, Asia): Use current flat prices to extend coverage modestly into September/October, especially for high‑spec Indian black and Egyptian golden lots, while keeping some volume unpriced in case of a late‑monsoon rally.
• Origin sellers in India: Maintain offer discipline; avoid heavy undercutting on FOB New Delhi/Nhava Sheva as weather‑related risk to kharif oilseeds is not fully priced. Consider small scale hedge sales on rallies if local rainfall improves materially in early August.
• Origin sellers in Egypt and Paraguay: Leverage competitive EUR‑denominated prices to target quality‑sensitive EU and Japanese buyers, but be prepared for tougher negotiations if Indian offers soften on better monsoon news.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi): Sideways to slightly firm. Stable quotes with a mild upward bias if monsoon rainfall disappoints in the coming days.
• Egypt (EG, FOB Cairo): Sideways. Little change expected as irrigated supply is steady and export pipelines are functioning normally.
• Paraguay (PY, FOB Asunción): Sideways. No immediate weather or policy triggers; prices likely to track demand from Brazil and Asian buyers.