Sesame under Pressure: Pakistan and Brazil Squeeze India’s Margin

India’s sesame market is moving into the 2026 kharif harvest with rising quality risks and intensifying competition from Pakistan and Brazil, keeping upside in check despite seasonal demand. Uncertainty around India’s crop size, reports of rain-affected quality in Gujarat, and subdued exports contrast with Pakistan’s strong tender performance in South Korea and Brazil’s heavy export program. Nigerian supplies are also starting to surface, albeit with moisture-related quality issues, adding to a broadly well-supplied and quality-sensitive global market.

Prices

In India, domestic Natural Sortex sesame is quoted around ₹134–135/kg, with hulled sesame near ₹158–160/kg. Black sesame is comparatively firm: Z-Black hovers around ₹213–214/kg and regular black near ₹177–178/kg.

Export-oriented quotations in New Delhi show hulled sesame FOB mostly steady, with key levels at EUR 1.45/kg for 99.90% purity and between EUR 1.49–1.57/kg for EU-grade material (99.95–99.98% purity, non-organic, FOB New Delhi). Natural sesame from India is indicated around EUR 1.28–1.33/kg FOB, depending on purity and sorting. In Europe, Chadian hulled sesame is offered at about EUR 1.51/kg FCA Berlin, unchanged versus the previous quote.

Supply & Demand

India’s 2026 kharif sesame crop is currently estimated in a broad 140,000–170,000 tonne range, underlining substantial uncertainty. Late rainfall has damaged quality in some growing regions, especially Gujarat, while old-crop stocks are put at just 20,000–30,000 tonnes — a relatively modest cushion.

Poorer quality in rain-affected areas contrasts with Pakistan’s better new-crop quality and competitive pricing, which have enabled it to capture more demand in key Asian markets. India’s export performance has been subdued, in part because buyers are switching to Pakistan and other origins where quality and price are aligning more favourably.

Brazil is simultaneously increasing its global footprint. Its 2026 sesame production is estimated at about 340,900 tonnes, with August exports of 45,545 tonnes, including 31,225 tonnes to China (roughly 69% of that month’s shipments). This strong export pace, combined with harvest completion, confirms Brazil as a major volume supplier into Asia and, increasingly, into India itself.

On the African side, Nigeria’s new crop is starting to arrive on the market. Early arrivals show improved colour and good yields, but excess moisture is a persistent concern for exporters. Cleaned sesame at Dawanau is indicated around NGN 1,300–1,320/kg, suggesting active local buying but also ongoing quality-related discounting where drying is inadequate.

Fundamentals & Competition

India’s domestic balance is being reshaped by imports. Between July and September, an estimated 28,000 tonnes of Brazilian sesame have arrived in India, boosting local availability and tempering price strength just as the domestic harvest approaches. This imported flow is particularly significant given the relatively low level of old-crop stocks.

Internationally, competition has intensified. Pakistan’s dominance in South Korea’s recent 20,000-tonne sesame tender — reportedly securing around 12,600 tonnes, or nearly 63% of the total, while India received no reported allocation — underscores a shift in regional buying preferences. The tender also set a closely watched CFR benchmark that importers are now using in negotiations with Indian and African suppliers.

For India, this means that even if crop quality losses from rain are confirmed, the scope for sharp price rallies is constrained by plentiful and competitive supply from Pakistan and Brazil. Conversely, if quality in key Indian belts proves better than feared, domestic and export markets may still have to absorb larger volumes in the face of strong rival origins, keeping prices relatively range-bound.

Weather & Crop Quality Outlook

Late-season rainfall in parts of India’s sesame belt, particularly in Gujarat, is reported to have adversely affected seed quality. For sesame, rain near maturity can increase shattering and discoloration risks, raising the share of lower grades and widening spreads between premium and average-quality lots.

In Nigeria, recent weather assessments point to a split outlook: wetter north-central zones support yields but heighten harvest-time moisture and mold risks, while far-northern areas have faced persistent rainfall deficits, curbing output but encouraging faster field-drying where crops survived. Overall, global supply appears ample but more quality-segmented, with a premium likely to persist for clean, well-dried product.

Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

In the near term, India’s sesame prices will pivot on three factors: the realized quality of the new kharif crop, festive and winter demand, and relative export competitiveness versus Pakistan and Brazil. If rain-related damage in Gujarat and other regions proves extensive, high-quality Indian sesame could attract a noticeable premium.

However, larger Brazilian export availability and Pakistan’s stronger foothold in Asian tenders are likely to cap aggressive price gains, especially for average grades. Import flows into India and a competitive global supply environment argue for a cautiously balanced to slightly heavy tone unless clear evidence of significant quality loss emerges at scale.

• Importers / Roasters: Use current stability in Indian FOB and European FCA prices to secure Q4–Q1 coverage, prioritising origins with proven drying and sorting capacity. Consider diversifying between Indian, Pakistani and Brazilian supply to mitigate origin-specific weather and logistics risks.
• Indian Exporters: Focus on segregating and certifying top-quality lots from rain-affected belts to defend premiums in Asia and the Middle East. Benchmark offers against recent Korean tender CFR levels and be prepared for buyer resistance on average grades.
• Producers in India & Nigeria: Invest in post-harvest drying and storage to minimise moisture discounts, especially where late rains are reported. For growers with access to quality-sensitive markets, targeting higher-grade specifications may yield better net returns than chasing volume.
• Speculative / Trading Houses: Bias towards range-trading strategies, with limited upside expectations given strong Brazilian and Pakistani competition. Watch confirmed Indian crop-size and quality data for any trigger that could tighten the nearby balance.

3-Day Directional Outlook (Key Markets)

• India FOB New Delhi (natural & hulled): Mostly sideways; modest downside risk for mid/low grades if Brazilian inflows remain strong and harvest pressure builds.
• Black sesame (India FOB): Steady to slightly firm, supported by tighter niche supply and relatively resilient demand.
• Europe FCA (Chad hulled): Sideways; no immediate catalyst for a break-out as buyers monitor Indian crop quality and Brazilian export pace.