Softening Rice FOBs from India and Vietnam as Monsoon Progresses

India and Vietnam rice export prices are edging lower in late July, with modest week‑on‑week declines across key parboiled, basmati and long‑grain segments in both origins. Improved monsoon coverage over much of India and seasonally wet conditions in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta are easing immediate production fears, tilting the short‑term bias mildly bearish in EUR terms. Export demand remains steady but unspectacular, with buyers well covered nearby and watching weather and policy signals rather than chasing volume. India’s kharif paddy sowing is progressing under a still‑deficient but improving monsoon, while Vietnam’s first‑half 2026 export earnings have risen on higher volumes and firm fragrant rice values. Over the next three days, FOB indications from New Delhi and Hanoi are expected to drift sideways to slightly lower, barring any abrupt policy moves.

Prices

• India, New Delhi FOB (converted to EUR/mt, spot):
  • PR11 steam: ~€320/mt, down about 3% from late June.
  • Sharbati steam: ~€450/mt, down around 6% over four weeks.
  • 1121 steam: ~€690/mt, easing about 3% since late June.
  • 1509 steam: ~€650/mt, off roughly 3% over the month.
  • 1121 creamy sella: ~€610/mt, down about 3% on the month.
  • Organic white basmati: ~€1,590/mt, marginally softer from €1,620/mt.
  • Organic white non‑basmati: ~€1,290/mt, down from €1,330/mt.
• Vietnam, Hanoi FOB (converted to EUR/mt, spot):
  • Long white 5%: ~€330/mt, lower versus late June by roughly 4%.
  • Jasmine: ~€340/mt, modest 3–4% dip on the month.
  • Homali: ~€480/mt, down around 4% month‑on‑month.
  • Japonica: ~€440/mt, easing by about 4% from late June.
  • Calrose: ~€470/mt, slightly softer than late June.
  • Specialty types (black, red, glutinous, paper‑dried) show similar 1–2% easing.

Supply & Demand

• India: The southwest monsoon has now covered the entire country as of July 9, 2026, supporting kharif paddy sowing despite earlier rainfall deficits. Government reviews indicate positive progress in paddy area in several states, although total kharif acreage lags last year.
• Rainfall remains below normal in parts of eastern and southern India – including Bihar, Punjab and Kerala – with deficits above 32% in some states as of July 24. This localized dryness keeps a mild weather‑risk premium in premium basmati and non‑basmati offers but has not yet triggered a sharp rally.
• Vietnam: Vietnam’s rice export earnings reached about USD 2.38 billion in the first half of 2026, on increased volumes and higher prices for fragrant 5% broken rice, which has recently traded around USD 510–520/mt. Tight fragrant supply and strong Asian demand underpin the higher‑grade segment even as benchmark white and specialty varieties edge slightly lower in EUR terms.
• Import demand from Asia and Africa is described as steady but more price‑sensitive after the run‑up earlier this year. Buyers are selectively shifting between India and Vietnam depending on grade, freight and policy risk, which is helping cap short‑term rallies at both origins.

Weather Watch: IN & VN

• India (rice belt including north India, East India and coastal zones): National data show the all‑India monsoon deficit narrowing to about 16% by July 24, with expectations of heavier rainfall over parts of western and central India around July 24–25. For the next three days (July 26–28), models point to continued scattered to fairly widespread showers in key paddy regions, gradually improving soil moisture but not fully erasing deficits in some eastern states.
• Vietnam (Mekong Delta): The Mekong Delta is forecast to remain hot and humid with daily highs around 35–38°C and frequent showers or thunderstorms through July 29. Rainfall totals are moderate, typical for the wet season, supporting rice growth and transplanting without major flood disruptions at this stage.
• Weather impact: Overall, near‑term weather in both India and Vietnam is supportive for crop development, helping to ease immediate supply risk. Market attention is shifting from short‑term rainfall variability to policy decisions and export demand as the primary price drivers into August.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Export competitiveness: Indicative Vietnamese fragrant 5% broken offers around USD 510–520/mt (roughly €470–480/mt) keep Vietnam competitive in higher‑grade segments, while India’s basmati and parboiled remain at a premium but have softened modestly over the past month.
• Policy backdrop: No fresh trade policy shocks have been announced in the past three days in either India or Vietnam. Previous restrictions and licensing regimes continue to temper India’s non‑basmati exports, but current price action suggests markets have largely priced in existing rules.
• Costs & FX: With crude oil stable and freight rates off earlier peaks, logistics costs are not adding significant upward pressure. A relatively firm EUR against regional currencies over July is slightly dampening EUR‑denominated FOB values despite USD‑based firmness in some fragrant segments.
• Speculative positioning: There is limited evidence of aggressive speculative buying in physical or paper rice markets this week. Trade flows appear dominated by routine demand rather than stockpiling, contributing to the gentle downward drift in offers from both New Delhi and Hanoi.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View (IN, VN)

• Price bias (July 26–28, 2026):
  • India FOB New Delhi: Sideways to −0.5% for parboiled and steam grades; −0.5% to −1% for premium basmati as sellers remain willing to negotiate on nearby cargoes.
  • Vietnam FOB Hanoi: Sideways to −0.5% for long white 5% and fragrant varieties, with wet‑season weather and strong H1 exports limiting any deeper correction.
• Weather‑driven risk: In India, any confirmation of persistent large rainfall deficits in eastern states beyond early August could re‑introduce an upside risk premium, especially in high‑quality basmati. In Vietnam, the main watchpoint is excessive rainfall or flooding in the Mekong Delta, but current forecasts do not indicate immediate severe stress.

Focused Trading Recommendations

• Importers (Asia, Middle East, Africa): Use the current mild softening in Indian steam and Vietnamese long‑white 5% to secure nearby to Q4 coverage, especially for standard‑grade white and parboiled. Stagger purchases in small lots, as weather and policy headlines can still trigger short‑term volatility.
• Indian exporters: Consider modest price discounts (0.5–1%) on 1121 and 1509 steam to accelerate shipments while monsoon news is price‑neutral to slightly bearish. Maintain some flexibility on basmati premiums until clearer signals emerge on eastern‑India rainfall in early August.
• Vietnamese exporters: Hold relatively firm on fragrant varieties given strong H1 export performance and tightness, but be prepared for small tactical discounts on standard long‑white cargoes if competing Indian offers become more aggressive.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR)

• India – New Delhi FOB (all key rice types): Expected to trade in a narrow band around current levels with a slight downward bias of up to ~€5/mt, assuming stable policy and continuous but uneven monsoon showers.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (long white, Jasmine and other main grades): Likely to remain broadly stable, with any moves limited to ±€3–4/mt as typical wet‑season weather and steady export demand keep the market balanced.