Sunflower Seed Prices Ease in China While Ukraine Holds Firm

Chinese sunflower seed and kernel prices are edging slightly lower, while Ukrainian values remain firm in euro terms on steady crush demand and cautious farmer selling. Short‑term, we see a mildly softer tone for CN offers and a broadly sideways bias for UA. Sunflower markets are entering July with mixed regional dynamics. China shows modest price corrections in both confection and bakery kernels after earlier strength, helped by comfortable stocks and strong competition from other oilseeds. In Ukraine, domestic bids around the equivalent of the mid‑€500s per tonne are being maintained, supported by high crush margins and still‑tight farmer selling, even as analysts flag potential downside later in July if a larger Black Sea crop materialises. Weather in both China and Ukraine is seasonally warm but not yet threatening, keeping fundamentals balanced.

Prices

Note: USD prices from Ukrainian domestic sources around 575 USD/t DAP on 01 July 2026 are converted at ≈1.00 USD = 0.99 EUR for indicative comparison.

Supply & Demand Drivers (CN & UA)

• Ukraine – strong crush, cautious farmers: Domestic bids near 575 USD/t DAP have been stable through late June and early July, reflecting good demand from processors and relatively tight on-farm stocks.
• Potential Black Sea crop pressure: Recent analysis highlights expectations of a bigger 2026/27 sunflower crop in the wider Black Sea region, especially Russia, which could weigh on new‑crop prices later in July and into autumn if realised.
• China – balanced nearby availability: There is no sign of acute tightness in Chinese sunflower seeds, with traders reporting competitive offers versus imported alternatives and other oilseeds, helping cap upside despite still‑healthy export interest.
• Oil complex context: International oilseed reports point to a sizeable increase in global sunflowerseed production for 2026/27, mainly in Ukraine, Russia, the EU and Argentina, which tempers bullish sentiment in seed markets despite firm crush margins.

Weather Snapshot – CN & UA

• China (CN): Northern sunflower regions, including areas comparable to Beijing and the North China Plain, are entering their hottest month, with highs typically above 30°C and significant monsoonal moisture. Current forecasts for early July show seasonally hot, mostly favourable growing conditions without clear signs of heat‑stress extremes.
• Ukraine (UA): Latest commentary and regional weather updates describe generally warm, seasonally dry‑to‑normal conditions across key sunflower belts, with no major new drought or flooding events reported in the last few days. This supports crop establishment but keeps markets alert to any shift during peak vegetative growth.

Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• Ukraine: prices high but vulnerable: Local analysis notes that sunflower prices remain relatively elevated after earlier declines, yet traders expect potential easing in July if improved new‑crop prospects and increased Russian supply materialise.
• China: mild correction after spring strength: Chinese kernel prices have slipped from June peaks, especially in confection and organic grades, reflecting demand resistance from snack and bakery buyers and strong competition from cheaper Black Sea origins.
• Global macro backdrop: Broader vegetable‑oil markets remain underpinned by solid demand and a relatively narrow price spread between sunflower oil and competing oils, but ample overall oilseed supplies limit strong rallies and keep a cap onseed prices.

Short‑Term Trading Outlook

• Buyers (EU & Asia): Use current CN and UA offers to secure near‑term coverage; consider staggering purchases into late July to benefit if Black Sea new‑crop pressure emerges.
• Ukrainian farmers: With domestic bids still relatively attractive in euro terms and downside risk from larger regional crops, gradual sales on rallies above the mid‑€500s/t equivalent look prudent.
• Chinese exporters: Maintain competitive pricing versus Black Sea seed and kernels; any short‑term CN price strength may quickly attract substitution towards UA origins.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

• China (CN), FOB Beijing – seeds & kernels: Sideways to slightly weaker over the next 3 days, with export offers expected to drift by ±1–2% as buyers test lower levels amid comfortable supply.
• Ukraine (UA), FOB/DAP Black Sea – seeds: Broadly steady bias, with prices likely to hold near recent highs in the mid‑€500s/t equivalent; only minor day‑to‑day moves anticipated before clearer signals on new‑crop yields and logistics.