Soya Market Insights: Shifting Global Demand and Firming Oilseeds Prices

The global soya market is navigating a period of dynamic transitions as fundamental shifts in demand, supply-side constraints, and evolving trade patterns shape price behavior across key regions. On the one hand, China—the world’s largest buyer—shows clear signs of structurally weakening demand for vegetable oils, with food-sector usage down and only feed demand remaining stable. India, in contrast, is sharply increasing its soya oil imports at the expense of palm oil, propelling soya’s footprint to its largest since July 2022. Policy interventions in Ukraine, including export duty requirements, keep more seed domestically for crushing, though weather delays and acreage cuts add further complexity. Globally, Canadian exporters are re-routing strategy towards the Mexican market amidst trade barriers in China.

Recent trading at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reflects a firmer underlying tone. Soya oil, meal, and beans saw modest upward moves, with meal leading the pack (+0.76%) as meal demand remains brisk, especially in emerging Asian markets. Despite stable-to-weak cash prices in origins such as Ukraine and the US, underlying trends suggest firm support as delayed sunflower and soya supplies and restricted trade flows continue to underpin market psychology. Early fundamental indications point to the possibility of additional volatility as a result of weather patterns in South America and late-season acreage shifts, setting the stage for a potentially active market during the last quarter of the year.

📈 Prices

CBOT Soya Oil, Meal & Beans

Contract	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
Soya Oil Dec 25	50.77 US-Cent/lb	-0.10 (-0.20%)	Neutral
Soya Meal Dec 25	279.00 USD/Short ton	+2.10 (+0.76%)	Mildly Bullish
Soybeans Nov 25	1012.50 US-Cent/bu	+1.75 (+0.17%)	Firm

DCE Sojabohnen (China, Yuan/t)

Contract	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
Nov 25	4000 CNY/t	+31 (+0.78%)	Positive

Europe & Physical Market (FOB)

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Date
CN	yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.79	0.80	2025-10-16
CN	yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.69	0.70	2025-10-16
US	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	0.39	0.39	2025-10-11

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Structural decline in vegetable oil demand for food (expected to fall 4% to 34.7m t), with stable but flat feed sector demand at 1.3m t. Soy oil import potential constrained by tepid growth in consumption.
• India: Soy oil imports soared 37% in September (yoy) to 500,000 t, offsetting lower palm oil arrivals. This trend is expected to persist through Q4 depending on price spreads.
• Ukraine: Rapeseed processing to double vs. previous season (>1m t); export duties (10%) incentivize domestic crushing. Weather delays in sunflower and soya harvesting tighten short-term supplies.
• Canada: Shifting export flows from China to Mexico amid high Chinese import tariffs and new trading channels.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA reports: Indicate average US soybean yields and steady harvest progress, but concerns linger over South American planting pace and rainfall distribution.
• Speculation: Managed money is net-long soya oil and meal, reflecting expectations of strong product demand and possible supply tightness into year-end.
• Inventories: Global soybean stocks are expected to end slightly higher year-on-year, but exporting surpluses (Brazil, US) face logistical bottlenecks and farmer selling reluctance.
• Regional market flows: India’s pivot to soy oil supports global demand, but Chinese import slowdowns and currency moves limit upside.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• South America: Current forecasts predict scattered rainfall across central Brazil, but dryness persists in southern states. This could impact early crop establishment, raising yield risks if precipitation is not timely.
• US Midwest: Harvest weather is generally favorable with above-average temps, accelerating completion of remaining acreage.
• Ukraine: Variable weather is delaying sunflower and soya readiness, but mild early winter is supportive for rapeseed and late soybean crops.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output Est. (m t)	2024/25 Stocks (m t)
Brazil	157	31
US	113	8
Argentina	50	4
China (import)	17	38
EU-27	2.7	0.7

📌 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Bullish undertone for soya meal, with potential for further gains if animal protein demand in Asia remains firm.
• Soya oil faces headwinds from softening Chinese food demand but finds support in Indian buying and tight near-term supply in Europe/Ukraine.
• Watch weather developments in southern Brazil and Ukraine for potential market-moving updates.
• Hedgers should consider locking in margins on rallies, while importers remain attentive to basis moves and availabilities, especially from Ukraine and South America.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans (Nov 25)	1012.50 US-Cent/bu	1012–1018 US-Cent/bu	Stable to Mildly Bullish
DCE Soybeans (Nov 25)	4000 CNY/t	3990–4040 CNY/t	Range-bound, slight upside risk
EU Physical (CN)	0.79 EUR/kg	0.78–0.80 EUR/kg	Steady