Soya Market July 2025: Tensions, Weather, and Trade Deals Shape Price Outlook

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The global soya market is currently navigating a crossroads of international trade negotiations, shifting weather patterns, and evolving supply-demand balances. Recent developments on the macro-political front—most notably the new US-Japan trade agreement—have injected a degree of optimism despite ongoing friction with other major partners such as China and the EU. This agreement sets mutual tariffs at 15% and secures substantial Japanese investment into the US, lending the market a positive, albeit cautious, boost. Meanwhile, strong harvest prospects in the US are counterbalancing bullish momentum, with USDA’s latest Crop Progress Report reflecting solid crop conditions that are poised to yield potentially record-breaking outputs. Surprisingly, a slight deterioration in crop ratings failed to make a marked impact on futures, as the broader market remains focused on favourable growing weather across the Midwest.

Internationally, shifting import flows are shaping European markets. EU soya imports dipped 32% year-on-year in July, but US-origin beans doubled, while Brazilian shipments contracted, highlighting dynamic shifts in global trade routes. In Canada, recent rains and milder temperatures have dispelled concerns over canola and soybean yield losses, pressuring ICE prices. On the consumer side, EU purchases of soya meal and rapeseed continue to decline in response to tighter global supplies and changing dietary oils demand. Against this backdrop, soya prices are rising modestly, but gains are tempered by ample US supply and muted demand growth in key markets.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange Product Contract Latest Price Weekly Change Currency Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans Nov 2025 1025.75 +0.29% US-Cent/bu Neutral to Slightly Bullish
CBOT Soybean Meal Dec 2025 285.10 -0.18% USD/short ton Bearish
CBOT Soybean Oil Dec 2025 56.19 +0.59% US-Cent/lb Bullish
DCE Soybeans No.1 Sep 2025 4229 +0.38% CNY/t Stable
Physical – CN yellow, organic 0.77 0.00 EUR/kg Stable
Physical – CN yellow 0.69 +0.01 EUR/kg Firming
Physical – US No. 2 0.35 0.00 EUR/kg Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

  • US: Crop outlook remains robust with healthy progress. The recent USDA Crop Progress Report indicated a minor decline in condition ratings, but excellent growing weather in the Corn Belt supports expectations for above-average yields.
  • EU: July soybean imports dropped by 32% YoY to 519,609 t, but US-origin bean imports more than doubled compared to last year, while Brazilian exports fell sharply. Soya meal imports also down 10%.
  • Canada: Improved rainfall and moderate temperatures have alleviated fears of a canola and soybean crop failure; yields are likely to recover further if favorable weather persists.
  • China: Dalian soybean futures show steady to firm pricing, indicating local demand remains robust despite currency volatility and trade tensions.
  • Global inventories: Remain at average to above-average levels for soybeans, but meal and oil stocks are starting to tighten due to increased processing margins and export demand shifts.

📊 Market Fundamentals

  • US-Japan trade deal agreed for 15% mutual tariffs; anticipated to stimulate bilateral trade in the near term and support US exports, though talks with China/EU remain deadlocked.
  • Speculators holding moderately long positions on soybean oil and meal but appear cautious on beans, with open interest stable-to-slightly rising on CBOT futures.
  • Rapeseed and palm oil imports into the EU are also down, reflecting changing oils demand and supply constraints from Australia and Southeast Asia.
  • Physical market prices in China show organic soybean premiums holding steady, while non-organic beans edge up, reflecting resilient local consumption despite volatile imports.

🌦️ Weather Watch & Outlook

  • US Midwest: Near-ideal crop weather continues, with scattered showers and moderate temperatures supporting pod fill stage. No imminent threats of drought or heat stress in the 7-day outlook.
  • Canada (Prairies): Recent rainfall has dramatically improved soil moisture profiles, raising yield prospects for both canola and soybeans after a previously dry spring.
  • South American Outlook: Off-season, but early indications for spring planting in Brazil/Argentina are positive, with regular rainfall predicted in major soya growing regions.
  • Europe: Generally favourable summer conditions, but some local dryness in Southeast Europe may trim yields unless late rains arrive.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country 2024/25 Output (est.) 2024/25 Ending Stocks Import/Export Comments
USA 117m t 28m t Exports above average, solid domestic crush
Brazil 154m t 30m t Exports strong, but 2025 YTD down on previous year
Argentina 51m t 7m t Exports stable, meal/oil focus
China 19m t 22m t Largest importer, firm domestic prices
EU27 2.7m t 0.8m t Imports lower, shift toward US origination
India 12m t 1.5m t Self-sufficient, meal exports

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • Monitor progress of US–China/EU negotiations—a breakthrough could unlock further upside for US origin beans.
  • Current weather patterns in North America favour strong yields, but be vigilant for any rapid weather changes or disease outbreaks that could tighten supplies.
  • Physical buyers: Consider booking short-to-medium term requirements given upward momentum but avoid over-committing in case plentiful US supplies cap further price rises.
  • Speculators: Favour short-dated long positions on soya oil, watch for mean reversion in meal spreads; roll profits where resistance emerges near 1080–1100 USc/bu Nov CBOT.
  • EU processors: Take advantage of higher US-origin imports and favourable USD/EUR rates for spot purchases.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange Product Price Range Next 3 Days Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans Nov 25 1022 – 1038 US-Cent/bu Firm/Bullish
DCE Soybeans Sep 25 4210 – 4260 CNY/t Stable/Firm
Physical CN Yellow (FOB Beijing) 0.69 – 0.71 EUR/kg Stable/Firming