Soya Market: Sideways to Lower Bias Amid Global Supply Shifts and Weather Uncertainty

The global soya market enters mid-June 2025 on a cautious and slightly bearish note, as prices fluctuate across major exchanges in a context of uncertain weather forecasts, ample inventories, and shifting demand patterns. Soya futures in China remain firmer than in global markets, though volatility is evident in both Asia and Chicago amid macroeconomic jitters and continued adjustments in trade flows. U.S. and CBOT soybean contracts edge down on the back of larger-than-expected planted acreage and solid ending stocks, while Dalian’s No.1 bean contracts show modest positive momentum. Soyoil and soybean meal prices exhibit mild weakness or marginal gains, reflecting the broader oilseed complex’s turbulence as traders eye both supply chain updates and weather risks in the Americas and Asia.

Demand from major importers, notably China and the EU, remains robust but is tempered by efforts to diversify procurement sources and curb price inflation for animal feed and oil. The most recent USDA and China National Grain & Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) data signal a projected global surplus, yet heavy rainfall in Brazil and dryness in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast China are seen as key yield risk factors. With global stocks comfortable, but weather volatility lingering and speculative flows cautious, the window for price surprises is open, particularly as La Niña patterns threaten mid-season development. Market sentiment remains neutral to slightly negative in the short term, with room for sharp movement should weather or policy shocks emerge.

📈 Prices: Soybean Market Overview

DCE, CBOT and Physical Market Prices (as of June 12, 2025)

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
DCE	Jul 25	4188 CNY/t	+0.17%	Stable to Firm
CBOT	Jul 25	1045.75 US¢/bu	-0.45%	Slightly Bearish
CBOT	Nov 25	1028.75 US¢/bu	-0.05%	Neutral
CBOT Meal	Jul 25	294.30 USD/t	+0.03%	Stable
CBOT Oil	Jul 25	47.92 US¢/lb	-0.21%	Weak

Origin	Description	Location	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change
China	Yellow, Organic	Beijing	0.75	-0.02
China	Yellow	Beijing	0.70	+0.01
USA	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.33	0.00
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	0.71	0.00
Ukraine	Standard	Odesa	0.36	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA WASDE (June 2025): Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks revised upward on strong plantings and lacklustre export uptake.
• China’s Demand: Remains solid, but growth is below last year, influenced by livestock sector adjustments and larger 2024/25 domestic crop prospects.
• South American Supply: Brazil’s record 2025 harvest is offsetting some of the U.S. weakness, though logistics and quality issues from excess rainfall are being monitored.
• Speculative Flows: Managed money net short on CBOT soybeans, reflecting risk-off sentiment driven by global macro conditions and the prospect of improving crop weather.
• Inventories: Global stocks-to-use ratio remains healthy, limiting upside pressure.

📊 Fundamentals: Regional and International Landscape

• Production (2024/25, est; mt):
  • USA: ~117
  • Brazil: ~162
  • Argentina: ~49
  • China (Domestic): ~20
• Major Importers:
  • China: ~98 mt
  • EU: ~15 mt
• Global Ending Stocks: ~112 mt (higher YoY)

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Risks

• U.S. Midwest: Drier-than-normal conditions continue in parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, with patchy rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. Crop stress is a concern, especially during early pod-fill stages.
• Brazil: Southern regions are dealing with excess soil moisture, slowing fieldwork but boosting late-sown bean prospects if disease can be controlled. Northern regions remain favourable.
• China/Northeast Asia: Expect usual June rainfall, but the El Niño/La Niña transition brings unpredictability. Hot temperatures could impact bloom set in June-July.
• Forecast Impact: Near-term risk is skewed to the downside for yields in the U.S., but global impact is cushioned by Brazil’s output and high initial stocks.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks (Comparison)

Country	2024/25 Prod. (mt)	Ending Stocks (mt)
USA	117	10.8
Brazil	162	40
Argentina	49	10.7
China	20	4

💡 Trading Outlook

• Short-term trend remains neutral to slightly bearish, led by ample stocks and improving Brazil logistics.
• Downside risk is limited by dryness in the U.S. Midwest—watch for weather premium to build if next week sees further dryness.
• Monitor speculative flows; reversal of net short in CBOT could provide a technical floor.
• End-users may consider staggered purchases for Q3/Q4 coverage, as seasonal lows could be approaching.
• Upside surprise risk remains if La Niña strengthens and U.S. yields are sharply reduced.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Direction	Comment
Dalian (DCE) Jul 25	⬆️	Stable to firm on local demand; short-term support near 4180 CNY/t
CBOT Soybeans Jul 25	⬇️	Bears in control unless U.S. weather turns sharply adverse; support at 1040 US¢/bu
FOB China (Yellow, Organic)	➡️	Steady, reflecting domestic and international balance