Soya Market Update: Robust U.S. Progress Meets Global Demand Surge Amid Trade Volatility

The global soya market stands at a pivotal juncture as 2025 unfolds, marked by significant developments in the United States and China. The U.S. crop progress continues to outperform historical trends, with 90% of soybeans now sown, surpassing the 88% seasonal average. Favourable growing conditions accompanied by strong emergence rates (75% vs. average) and a crop quality rating uptick to 69% good/excellent bolster optimism for another robust harvest. Nevertheless, markets remain sensitive to the US-China trade narrative. While diplomatic meetings hinted at easing tensions, a lack of concrete results shifted trader sentiment towards profit-taking.

Meanwhile, export numbers reveal a powerful story: U.S. soybean shipments have jumped 81.5% week-on-week, with total exports since September climbing 11.5% above last year. China’s voracious demand fuels much of this, with May imports exceeding 13.9 million tons, more than double April’s figure. This renewed import appetite provides floor support for U.S. and global prices, even as speculative flows keep volatility high. However, gradually strengthening fundamentals and positive weather outlooks suggest that the market’s downward correction may be limited.

Looking ahead, global and local market dynamics are set for continued flux, with near-term direction shaped by weather, geopolitics, and inventory flows. Read on for a data-rich breakdown of price trends, key drivers, and the latest forecasts to inform your trading and risk management.

📈 Prices: Latest Soya Market Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans	Jul 25	1,062.00 US¢/bu	+0.57%	Slightly Bullish
CBOT Soymeal	Jul 25	295.80 USD/short ton	+0.10%	Steady
CBOT Soy Oil	Jul 25	47.82 US¢/lb	+0.93%	Recovering
DCE Soybeans No.1	Jul 25	4,141 CNY/t	-0.02%	Stable

Origin	Product	Purity	Price (USD/kg, FOB)	Weekly Change
China	Soybeans (yellow, organic)	99.8%	0.75	-2.7%
China	Soybeans (yellow)	99.5%	0.70	+1.4%
USA	Soybeans (No. 2)	–	0.33	0.0%
India	Soybeans (sortex clean)	–	0.71	0.0%
Ukraine	Soybeans	–	0.36	0.0%

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Crop Progress: 90% sown vs 88% avg; emergence and crop conditions both above norm, indicating potential for robust yields.
• USDA Export Inspections: Weekly soybean shipments at 547,040 t (+81.5% week-on-week). Cumulative 11.5% above last year.
• Chinese Imports: May imports at 13.92 Mt (up >100% m/m; up from 10.22 Mt y/y), underlining China’s critical demand role.
• Speculative Flows: Recent lacklustre progress in trade talks triggered profit taking and added short-term volatility.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Inventory & Trade Snapshot

Country	Est. 2024/25 Output (Mt)	Change YoY	Est. Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	114	+3%	11.5
Brazil	153	+2%	37.0
Argentina	49	+8%	4.5
China (imports)	113	+5%	–

Key Insight: Brazil and the U.S. continue to dominate global export supply, while China remains the single largest importer, dictating global price support.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Midwest U.S.: Predominantly warm with moderate rainfall expected for the next week supports early crop growth. Some excess rain pockets may delay field activities locally, but the overall trend is positive for yields.
• Southern Brazil: Dry weather eases harvest conditions, but long-term moisture deficits may cap late-crop yields.
• Argentina: Adequate soil moisture and mild temperatures create a favourable scenario for mid-season soybeans.

🔑 Market Drivers Recap

• Large U.S. sowings and strong early crop conditions
• Sharp recent uptick in global and China-bound exports
• Heightened sensitivity to U.S.–China trade rhetoric and logistics news
• Solid fundamental stock levels in top exporters, but strong import pull from China

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor U.S. Midwest weather—favourable conditions could further pressure prices, while adverse events could spark rallies.
• Exporters may use current stability to lock in sales, especially for organic and premium grades.
• Importers should watch for dips in speculative-driven corrections for spot and forward bookings.
• Short-term volatility is likely to persist on trade policy headlines—hedging is prudent.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT (Jul 25)	1,062.00 US¢/bu	1,060 – 1,075 US¢/bu	Neutral-to-Slightly Bullish
DCE (Jul 25)	4,141 CNY/t	4,120 – 4,170 CNY/t	Stable
CN FOB (organic)	0.75 USD/kg	0.74 – 0.77 USD/kg	Supported

Prices are likely to remain range-bound short-term, with upside risk if Midwest weather turns adverse or if China makes additional major purchases.