Soya Market Update: Steady Prices Amid Global Crop Volatility, Weather in Focus

The global soya market stands at a fascinating crossroads as we approach mid-2025. Recent data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) shows a mixture of stability and subtle shifts across soybeans, soybean oil, and soy meal contracts, with investors carefully weighing supply uncertainties, mixed weather outlooks, and macroeconomic influences. While benchmark prices at CBoT and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) show modest daily moves, the spotlight remains on global acreage forecasts, especially in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina, which together account for more than 80% of world production.

Traders and processors are also closely tracking the progress of Chinese demand, recent USDA estimates, and speculative positioning, all set against a backdrop of variable weather conditions across major growing regions. Meanwhile, current physical offers for soybeans reflect steady to mildly bullish price action, underpinned by firm global demand and some weather risk premiums. With an eye on both fundamental data and technical signals, market participants are navigating a period marked by both cautious optimism and the potential for increased volatility should weather developments intensify.

📈 Market Prices Overview

Exchange	Product	Contract	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
CBoT	Soybeans	Jul 25	1021.75 US-Cent/bu	-0.10%	Cautious
CBoT	Soybean Oil	Jul 25	52.60 US-Cent/lb	+0.15%	Stable/Firm
CBoT	Soybean Meal	Jul 25	270.00 USD/tn.sh.	-0.33%	Weak/Corrective
DCE	Soybeans No.1	Jul 25	4188 CNY/t	-0.48%	Soft/Bearish

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Chg (%)
CN	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	0.76	+1.3%
CN	Yellow	99.5%	No	0.68	0.0%
US	No.2	–	No	0.34	+6.2%

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• USDA Reports: The latest USDA June WASDE positions 2024/25 global soybean production at around 403 million tons (+2% year-on-year), driven by positive planting outlooks in Brazil and the U.S. Stocks-to-use remains comfortable but has tightened somewhat due to resilient demand, especially from China.
• China: DCE contracts are slightly bearish amid ongoing destocking and domestic supply adjustments. Still, China remains the dominant global importer, with 2024/25 import estimates at 98–100 million tons.
• South America: Brazil’s harvest is near completion; recent rains benefited late crops, while Argentina’s export pace slowed on weaker river logistics but improved crop health.
• Speculative Positions: Managed money on CBOT shows a modest net long after recent buying, reflecting cautious optimism but a reluctance to press bullish bets amid weather uncertainty.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Inventories: Global carryover stocks for soybeans are projected at 120–125 million tons for 2024/25, slightly tighter versus last year due to higher crush demand.
• Price Trends: CBoT soybean futures exhibit narrow daily ranges, with new-crop months (Nov–Jan) holding just above key technical supports at 1000–1020 US-Cent/bu. Physical offers in key origins show mild gains, especially for organic soybeans from China.
• Crush Margins: Soybean meal and oil spreads remain attractive, providing demand support for raw beans even as meal prices correct modestly.
• Currency Effects: A stable US dollar and weak local currencies in Brazil and Argentina are supporting robust export flows and competitive pricing.

🌤️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• US Midwest: NOAA and private forecasters project near-normal rainfall and rising temperatures next week, aiding late planting but raising vigilance for July heatwaves that could threaten pod set and yield.
• Brazil: Southern regions benefited from late rains, stabilising yields for second-crop soybeans. Northern states had adequate moisture.
• Argentina: The Pampas is experiencing above-average soil moisture with mild temperatures, allowing for optimal early crop development.
• China: The Northeast (key region) faces scattered storms; cropping progress is normal, but heavy rainfall may hamper late planting in some areas.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Key Insights
USA	118	17	Average yields expected; weather still critical
Brazil	155	32	Harvest nearly done; strong export pace
Argentina	52	7	Crop improved after earlier setbacks
China	18	~9	Output steady; imports critical
EU	2.8	0.3	Limited supply, high import dependency

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure forward positions for fall/winter cover, especially if weather turns hotter/drier. Organic and speciality grades from China/India show the strongest basis gains.
• Sellers/Producers: Consider incremental sales on rallies above 1030–1040 US-Cent/bu (CBoT new crop), but retain weather-based flexibility.
• Processors: Maintain active positions in meal/oil products; meal shows more downside risk short term.
• Speculators: Hold moderate net long; watch for volatility spikes tied to July U.S. weather and global policy/economic news.
• Monitor: Key July USDA reports, South American export pace, and real-time weather updates for mid/late summer risk.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Product	3-Day Price Forecast	Sentiment
CBoT	Soybeans (Jul 25)	1015–1025 US-Cent/bu	Steady/Cautiously Bullish
CBoT	Soybean Meal (Jul 25)	268–272 USD/tn.sh.	Range-bound/Soft
DCE	Soybeans No.1 (Jul 25)	4170–4200 CNY/t	Steady with downside risk