Soybean futures, meal and oil edge higher while Chinese, Indian and Black Sea cash prices diverge. Concise outlook on prices, fundamentals and weather.
Prices
CBoT soybeans for Nov 2026 last trade around 1,298.75 US-Cent/bu, up 0.87% on the day, with Jan 2027 at 1,314.75 US-Cent/bu (+0.81%). The 2026/27 strip shows a slight backwardation out to Nov 2027, before easing further into 2028 and 2029.
Soyoil futures are modestly higher, with front contracts between 67.62 and 68.80 US-Cent/lb, gains of around 0.2–0.4%. Soymeal is firmer as well, with Dec 2026 at 361.60 USD/short ton (+1.12%) and nearby contracts up 0.6–1.5%.
In the cash market, recent quotations in EUR show: FOB Beijing yellow soybeans (non-organic, 99.5%) at 0.74 EUR/kg and yellow organic soybeans at 0.84 EUR/kg as of 8 October 2026, both 0.01 EUR/kg higher week-on-week. Indian soybeans (sortex clean, FOB New Delhi) stand at 0.89 EUR/kg, up from 0.87 EUR/kg on 3 October 2026.
Black Sea and US values are softer: Ukrainian soybeans FOB Odesa are indicated at 0.325 EUR/kg (down from 0.332 EUR/kg on 2 October 2026), while GMO-free CPT Odesa stands at 0.383 EUR/kg, below late-September levels. US No. 2 soybeans FOB (Washington D.C.) are quoted at 0.58 EUR/kg as of 2 October 2026, down from 0.60 EUR/kg on 24 September 2026.
| Origin | Type | Delivery term | Latest price (EUR/kg) | Direction vs prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (Beijing) | Yellow | FOB | 0.74 | Higher |
| China (Beijing) | Yellow, organic | FOB | 0.84 | Higher |
| India (New Delhi) | Sortex clean | FOB | 0.89 | Higher |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Standard | FOB | 0.325 | Lower |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | GMO-free | CPT | 0.383 | Lower |
| USA | No. 2 | FOB | 0.58 | Lower |
Supply & Demand
The CBoT soybean curve shows firm nearby premiums over 2028–29, reflecting current demand from crushers and importers versus expectations of comfortable longer-term supply. Rising soymeal prices suggest steady feed demand, while higher soyoil supports margins from the vegetable oil side.
Chinese DCE No.1 soybeans have rallied by around 2–2.2% across the Jan–Sep 2027 contracts, pointing to robust domestic buying and healthy crush activity. This supports international export demand, particularly from the US and Brazil, even as harvest pressure builds in the US.
In Europe and the Black Sea, softer Ukrainian prices indicate plentiful regional supply and some logistical pressure, likely linked to the new-crop flow and competition from South American beans. Premiums for GMO-free Ukrainian soybeans remain, but recent CPT values have slipped, hinting at buyer resistance at earlier levels.
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Fundamentals & Weather
The parallel strength in soymeal and soyoil futures underlines improving processing margins, encouraging crushers to secure nearby soybean coverage. Open interest in CBoT soybeans remains high above 1.0 million contracts across listed months, signalling deep participation from both commercial hedgers and speculative funds.
Weather in key producing regions is seasonally supportive. The US harvest is well underway, with largely favourable conditions limiting yield fears and tempering the upside. In Brazil, early planting has begun under mostly adequate soil moisture, although localised delays and the risk of later-season dryness will be watched closely as a potential catalyst for renewed price strength.
On the demand side, feed and biofuel sectors continue to underpin soymeal and soyoil use. Strong Chinese futures and firmer Asian cash markets, especially in India and China, emphasise that Asia remains the key demand engine, offsetting weaker price signals from the Black Sea.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Futures: With nearby CBoT soybeans, meal and oil all trending higher but capped by good US and Brazilian supply prospects, a cautiously bullish stance on the front 2026/27 months is justified, with tight risk management in case weather remains benign.
- Basis & spreads: Exporters in China and India may defend recent FOB increases, while Ukrainian and US sellers could face further basis pressure if global supply remains ample and freight stays stable.
- Procurement: Feed manufacturers and crushers with short nearby coverage should consider layering in additional volumes on price dips, especially for premium niches such as organic Chinese and GMO-free Ukrainian beans.
3-day price indication
- CBoT soybeans, meal and oil: Bias moderately firm, consolidating recent gains with limited upside unless new weather or demand shocks emerge.
- FOB China & India: Likely to remain firm to slightly higher, supported by futures strength and regional demand.
- Ukraine & US FOB: Downside risks persist, with prices expected to trade sideways to slightly weaker amid strong competition and harvest pressure.