Soybean Market Analysis: Bullish Oil, Flat Beans Amid Weather Uncertainty

The soybean market is undergoing a period of divergence, with soybean oil surging while soybean meal and beans post more muted moves. The latest CBOT data shows soybean oil futures soaring over 5% week-on-week, driven by robust biofuel demand and tightening space in global vegetable oil markets. Meanwhile, soymeal prices dipped below recent highs, and soybean futures are broadly steady, reflecting a balancing act between export pressures in the U.S., record South American supplies, and nervousness about U.S. weather. On top of this, China’s DCE market shows stable gains and healthy liquidity. At the same time, global spot prices highlight competitive offers from the U.S., Ukraine, and India, suggesting buyers have options and price stability at major ports. Weather developments are in focus, with the U.S.

Midwest forecast for scattered rains ahead and periods of heat stress, critical as the crop heads into pod-setting season. Fundamental demand for crushing remains steady in Asia, offset somewhat by sluggish European offtake. Looking ahead, volatility could rise on speculative positioning and as USDA acreage and crop condition reports loom. Market players should track the interplay of uncertain weather, export flows, and the ongoing pull between animal feed and bioenergy demand dynamics for clues to direction.

📈 Prices

Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans (Jul 25)	1,070.50	+0.07%	US¢/bu	Stable
CBOT Soybean Oil (Jul 25)	53.18	+5.08%	US¢/lb	Bullish
CBOT Soymeal (Jul 25)	289.20	-0.92%	USD/short ton	Soft
DCE Soybeans (Jul 25)	4,218	+0.57%	CNY/t	Firm
FOB Soybeans US (No.2)	0.32	-0.01	EUR/kg	Steady/Competitive
FOB India (Sortex)	0.70	-0.01	EUR/kg	Steady
FOB Ukraine	0.35	-0.01	EUR/kg	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA reports: U.S. soybean conditions are stable, but weather anxieties persist, especially as the crop heads into flowering.
• South America: Brazil exports remain high, with logistical bottlenecks easing, but domestic crushing margins are pressured by currency moves.
• China: Steady buying continues, but demand appears to shift more toward Brazil as U.S. offers become less competitive outside peak demand windows.
• EU-27: Imports remain steady, but processed demand softens amid flagging animal protein production.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop acreage: USDA June Acreage Report awaited – expectations for a modest increase in U.S. acreage vs last season.
• Global stocks: World inventories are comfortable but tightening for oil and meal segments.
• Speculative positioning: Net managed money is slightly net-long on oil, neutral on beans and meal.
• Biofuel: U.S. and Brazil biodiesel mandates underpin soybean oil prices.
• Export pace: U.S. Gulf shipments slightly lag, Brazil dominates China’s import flows.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Next 5 days forecast shows scattered showers, with temperatures above normal midweek. Risk: Periods of heat could stress the pod set if rains miss key areas, especially in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.
• Brazil (Mato Grosso, Paraná): Dry season near normal; harvest completion, acreage for second crop soy being monitored.
• Argentina: Favourable soil moisture but some frost risk flagged for late crop regions.
• China (Heilongjiang): Weather stable; soil moisture supports steady crop development, boosting outlook for DCE-traded beans.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output (est. million t)	Stocks (million t)
USA	118.0	8.5
Brazil	153.0	29.0
Argentina	49.5	4.6
China	18.5	22.5
EU-27	2.7	0.7

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Producers: Consider incremental new crop sales, especially on price spikes driven by U.S. weather scares – use stop-loss on open positions.
• 📌 Importers: Monitor South American basis offers; consider booking hand-to-mouth as basis signals competitive U.S./Ukraine/India FOB.
• 📌 Industry crushers: Watch for volatility in soybean oil; margin risk management recommended given meal softness and biofuel-led oil strength.
• 📌 Speculators: Favour long oil/short meal spreads; watch weather model updates and speculative fund flow for bean direction cues.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Commodity	Price Move Forecast (3d)	Sentiment
CBOT	Soybeans	+0.25% to +0.50%	Neutral-to-Firm
CBOT	Soybean Oil	+1.0% to +2.0%	Bullish
DCE	Soybeans	+0.1% to +0.6%	Firm
EU FOB	Soybeans	Flat to -0.3%	Stable