Soybean Market Steady as Record Soymeal Exports Cap a Well‑Supplied Complex

Record soybean meal exports from Argentina, Brazil and the United States are reinforcing a well-supplied feed complex, limiting upside in soybeans despite firm demand. Ample crushing and export availability in 2025/26 suggest that meal remains abundant, keeping feed costs contained and capping rallies in the wider soybean complex. Soybean markets are currently trading in a balance between robust global meal demand and comfortable export availability. Combined soymeal shipments from the three main exporters reached a record 73 million tonnes in 2025/26, with the EU and key Asian buyers absorbing much of the additional volume. At the same time, FOB soybean prices in the US, Ukraine, India and China remain broadly stable, reflecting neither acute shortage nor heavy surplus in beans themselves. Weather during the US harvest and early South American planting will be watched closely for the next directional move.

Prices

Physical soybean indications in EUR show a broadly steady picture across key origins:

• US Soybeans No. 2, FOB Washington D.C.: EUR 0.62/kg (unchanged over recent quotations).
• Ukraine Soybeans, FOB Odesa: EUR 0.34/kg (slightly below early-September levels).
• Ukraine Soybeans GMO-free, CPT Odesa: EUR 0.383/kg (marginally higher versus mid-month).
• India Soybeans sortex clean, FOB New Delhi: EUR 0.87/kg (stable over the period).
• China Soybeans yellow, FOB Beijing: EUR 0.74/kg; organic yellow, FOB Beijing: EUR 0.81/kg (both broadly steady).

These quotations point to a sideways to mildly soft tone outside niche segments (GMO-free, organic), consistent with abundant soymeal and strong crushing margins anchoring bean prices.

Supply & Demand

Global soymeal trade is the key driver in today’s soybean market. Combined soybean meal exports from Argentina, Brazil and the US reached a record 73 million tonnes in 2025/26, up from 68.9 million tonnes a year earlier, with shipments from these three origins rising by around 17 million tonnes over the last three years. High crushing rates underpin ample meal availability, particularly from South America and the US.

From June to August alone, exports from the three exporters reached 19.95 million tonnes, 2.1 million tonnes above the same period a year earlier. The EU remained the largest soymeal importer at 19.92 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia (6.91 million tonnes), Vietnam (4.55 million tonnes), the Philippines (3.79 million tonnes) and Thailand (3.01 million tonnes). This diversified, sustained demand confirms the structural importance of meal in global feed rations but does not yet signal scarcity.

On the supply side for beans, recent analysis points to record Brazilian soybean output in 2025/26 and still-solid US production, while Argentine crushing has also been robust. Together, these factors support comfortable export availabilities for both beans and meal, with logistics rather than production emerging as the main short-term risk in some origins.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the soybean complex is being shaped by strong crush margins and meal-led demand. High global crushing rates in Argentina, Brazil and the US are translating into large meal surpluses, which in turn help cap bean prices despite intermittent rallies on futures markets. Demand growth from the EU and Asian feed sectors remains firm but is being met by rising export capacity.

Weather-wise, US soybean conditions are generally favorable as the crop moves through maturity and early harvest, with national ratings close to 60% good-to-excellent in mid-September and leaf-drop progressing ahead of the five-year average. In Brazil, the start of 2026/27 soybean planting has been cautious, and localized moisture concerns exist in key states such as Mato Grosso and Paraná, but it is too early to identify significant yield risks. Current weather adds some risk premium but does not yet alter the overarching narrative of adequate supply.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

With soymeal markets well supplied and export flows from Argentina, Brazil and the US at record levels, the base case for the coming weeks is a rangebound soybean market, with downside limited by resilient feed demand and upside capped by ample meal availability. Weather during the US harvest and the early Brazilian planting window will be decisive for any break out of this range.

• Importers/feed buyers: Consider taking coverage on dips, especially for Q4 2026 and early 2027 positions, as current prices reflect comfortable supply but still-strong demand.
• Producers in the Americas: Use price stability to lock in margins through incremental hedging, particularly where local basis is strong due to logistics constraints.
• Traders: Focus on spreads within the soybean complex (beans vs. meal) and inter-origin arbitrage, as record meal exports and regional logistical bottlenecks are likely to create short-lived dislocations.

Over the next three trading days, soybean prices on key exchanges are likely to track a sideways to slightly firm path, with US futures and Black Sea FOB values reacting mainly to harvest headlines and early South American planting news rather than to immediate changes in physical availability.