Soybean Prices Drop as Trade Tensions and Crude Oil Weigh on Market

🌱 Soybean Prices Drop as Trade Tensions and Crude Oil Weigh on Market

Soybeans declined sharply on Monday as U.S.–China trade uncertainty, lower oil and vegetable oil prices, and bearish export data dampened sentiment.

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📊 Market Overview – May 5, 2025

📍 CBOT Soybeans (July 25)

Price (ct/bu)	EUR/t (approx)	Change
1,045.50	~339 EUR/t	-12.50

📍 USDA Export Inspections (Week ending May 1)

Metric	Volume
Weekly exports	324,101 t
W/W change	-29%
Y/Y change	-9%
Top destinations	Mexico (81k), China (68k), Japan (58k)
Marketing year total	43.46 Mio t
Y/Y total change	+11%

📍 Crop Progress Report (as of May 4)

Metric	Progress
Planting progress	30%
5-year average	23%
Previous year (same week)	24%
Analyst expectation	31%
Emergence	7%

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

🇺🇸 U.S.–China Trade Outlook: Talks Awaiting Schedule

• Traders await concrete developments after both sides expressed willingness to resume trade negotiations.
• No firm dates or delegation details have been confirmed.
• Uncertainty continues to weigh on soy demand forecasts.

🛢️ Crude Oil Weakness Undermines Biofuel Demand

• Crude oil fell after OPEC+ announced plans to raise production by 411,000 barrels/day starting in June.
• Saudi Arabia hinted at more increases, pressuring prices further.
• Lower oil prices reduce incentives for biodiesel production from soybean oil.

🇲🇾 Palm Oil Under Pressure

• Malaysian palm oil futures fell for the fifth straight session.
• Stocks are expected to rise 14.8% in April to 1.79 Mio t, the highest since Dec 2024.
• Production surged 16.9% m/m to 1.62 Mio t.
• Strong ringgit and weaker soybean oil prices added to the pressure.
• A slight recovery was seen on Tuesday morning.

🇺🇸 EPA Budget Cuts Raise Concerns for Biofuels

• President Trump’s call for cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency raised alarm among biodiesel stakeholders.
• Potential reduction in support for renewable fuel programs could hit future soy-based biofuel demand.