Soybeans Stay Firm as Strong Demand Offsets Harvest Pressure

International soybean prices are likely to stay relatively well supported even as new-crop supplies arrive from major producers. Robust demand from crushers, livestock feed manufacturers and the biofuel sector is absorbing fresh volumes, limiting the scope for a classic harvest-driven price slide in the short term. Processing demand and feed consumption are currently strong enough to underpin the market, while key supply and policy signals from the United States, China and India will continue to steer price direction. Weather-related risks, the evolution of stock levels and changing import programs in Asia, alongside biofuel policy developments, will be decisive for price volatility into late Q4.

Prices

Physical soybean indications in key origins point to a firm to slightly higher tone rather than a harvest dip. Recent quotations in our panel show:

• India, New Delhi, Soybeans sortex clean, FOB: EUR 0.89/kg (stable versus 17 October 2026).
• United States, Washington D.C., Soybeans No. 2, FOB: EUR 0.58/kg (unchanged since 16 October 2026).
• Ukraine, Odesa, Soybeans, FOB: EUR 0.333/kg (up from EUR 0.327/kg on 9 October 2026).
• Ukraine, Odesa, Soybeans GMO-free, CPT: EUR 0.401/kg (up from EUR 0.396/kg on 15 October 2026).
• China, Beijing, yellow soybeans, FOB: EUR 0.74/kg; yellow organic, FOB: EUR 0.85/kg (both above early-October levels).

These moves are consistent with recent futures behaviour, where the soybean complex has largely held earlier gains driven by strong domestic crush margins and steady international buying, despite expanding new-crop supplies.

Supply & Demand

New-season harvesting in the United States is progressing but remains slightly behind the five-year average, limiting downside pressure from farmer selling. As of mid-October, around mid-harvest progress and pockets of wet weather have slowed fieldwork but not derailed supply.

On the demand side, crushers and livestock feed manufacturers continue to absorb substantial soybean volumes, in line with recent data showing robust US crush in August and firm meal and oil offtake. China remains the dominant import engine, with customs data confirming high soybean import values into August 2026 and continued reliance on foreign supplies for feed and oil needs.

India’s role is twofold: a growing producer and a structurally sensitive consumer to monsoon variability. While new-crop availability should increase into the post-monsoon period, localized yield losses from an uneven 2026 monsoon, especially in key central states, may cap exportable surpluses and keep FOB indications in India comparatively firm.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals currently favor a supported price floor. Strong crush margins and rising soybean oil use for biofuels have tightened balance sheets in the oil segment, encouraging processors to secure beans forward. At the same time, livestock feed demand remains solid, helping to pull soymeal and beans into consumption channels and reducing visible stocks.

Weather risks remain a key watchpoint. In the US, near-term harvest weather will determine the pace at which remaining crop moves to market. In India, the 2026 monsoon ended with a rainfall deficit and stress during critical pod-filling stages in some soybean belts, raising uncertainty around final yields and quality. For buyers, this combination of strong industrial demand and patchy weather outcomes argues against complacency on coverage into early 2027.

Outlook & Trading View

Over the coming weeks, the market is likely to balance increasing physical availability from northern hemisphere harvests against strong crush and feed demand, biofuel-driven oil use and active Asian imports. Production and policy signals from the United States, China and India, as well as any shifts in stock levels, will remain the primary drivers of price direction, with weather and logistics providing additional volatility.

• Importers & Feed Manufacturers: Consider extending coverage on price breaks, especially for Non-GMO and specialty origins (India, GMO-free Ukraine), where premiums could widen if supplies tighten or logistics disrupt.
• Crushers: Maintain a disciplined origin mix between the US and alternative suppliers to hedge regional weather and policy risks; current flat price resilience argues for securing nearby physical needs.
• Producers: Use any post-harvest rallies to layer in hedges rather than target absolute highs, as expanding South American acreage later in the season could rebuild global carryout.

Short-term (3-day) directional view: with US harvest still underway and demand signals broadly supportive, soybean prices on major exchanges are expected to trade sideways to mildly firmer, with dips likely to attract end-user buying rather than trigger a sustained downtrend.