Soybeans: Strong Asian Crushing Margins Support Prices as Ukraine Softens

Soybean prices are underpinned by strong Asian crushing margins and firm Chinese feed demand, even as Ukrainian FOB values ease and US futures move sideways into harvest. The soybean complex is entering the 2026/27 season with a supportive demand backdrop from Asia: Wilmar International’s latest results confirm higher soybean crushing volumes and stronger tropical oil refining margins, helped by recovering Chinese feed demand and solid oilseed sales. At the same time, physical price indications show some regional softening, especially out of the Black Sea, while CBOT futures consolidate ahead of the US harvest and Brazilian planting. This creates a two‑speed market in which crushers and refiners enjoy improved margins, but farmers and exporters face more cautious flat price gains.

Prices

Regional soybean price indications in EUR show a mixed but overall stable picture over the past week, with weakness in Ukraine contrasting with steadier US and Chinese quotes.

CBOT soybean futures are broadly flat into the weekend, with November 2026 around the low‑13s USD/bu and a very shallow carry into early 2027, signalling balanced nearby supply and demand.

Supply & Demand

Wilmar International’s H1 2026 results highlight an important demand driver: stronger Chinese feed demand has boosted soybean crushing activity, lifting oilseeds and grains sales volumes by 6.1% to 14.9 million tonnes and revenue by 16% to $5.58 billion. The group’s feed and industrial products division saw pre‑tax profit jump 54.9% to $591 million, underscoring improved processing margins across soy and tropical oils.

On the supply side, Brazil is between crops, with planting of the 2026/27 soybean season just starting under an El Niño‑influenced pattern that generally supports early moisture in key Center‑West states but raises uncertainty for later‑season rainfall. In the US, crop reports from major producing states such as Illinois and the broader Midwest point to generally good soybean conditions and expectations for solid yields, as fields move towards maturity and harvest under mostly favourable late‑season weather.

In vegetable oils, Wilmar also reports stronger tropical oil refining margins, while crude palm oil output in Indonesia slipped 4% to about 716,000 tonnes, reflecting tighter palm availability. This lends support to the broader oilseed complex, limiting downside for soybean oil and, by extension, for whole beans despite regional price softness such as in Black Sea FOB indications.

Fundamentals & Crush Margins

The profit improvement at a major Asian crusher indicates that current flat prices are compatible with robust crush margins in key importing regions. Wilmar’s 9.9% year‑on‑year increase in core net profit to $641.5 million and 12.8% rise in pre‑tax profit to $1.06 billion were explicitly linked to higher soybean crushing volumes and stronger refining margins, particularly in China’s feed sector.

Recent regional reports show some volatility in Chinese soybean meal prices and crusher profitability, but margins have generally stayed positive through early September before coming under pressure in mid‑month as meal prices corrected. Even if meal prices weaken further, the combination of resilient oil demand and still‑favourable refinery margins in tropical oils helps maintain an underlying bid for soybeans from integrated processors.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Short‑term weather in the US Midwest remains mostly benign for soybeans, with recent dryness followed by more moderate conditions aiding the approach to harvest and supporting yield potential in states like Illinois and across identity‑preserved regions such as Michigan. Drought pockets exist but are not currently severe enough to significantly alter the national supply outlook.

In Brazil, agencies and forecasters point to El Niño conditions that encourage an early, well‑moistened planting window in the Center‑West, but the same pattern could bring an earlier‑than‑normal end to rains later in the season, increasing yield risk for both soybeans and subsequent safrinha corn. This mix of near‑term comfort and medium‑term uncertainty is likely to keep risk premiums modest but present in forward soybean pricing.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Flat prices: Expect a largely sideways to slightly firm tone in international soybeans as strong Asian crushing demand and tighter palm oil supplies offset harvest pressure from the US.
• Basis and spreads: Black Sea FOB soybeans may remain under relative pressure versus US and Brazilian origins, while CBOT calendar spreads should stay narrow, consistent with comfortable but not excessive nearby supply.
• Risk focus: Watch Brazilian planting progress and any shifts in Chinese meal demand or crush margins; a sharp deterioration in either could weigh on futures and Black Sea physical values.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• Ukraine FOB Odesa soybeans: Bias slightly softer to stable around recent EUR levels as export competition stays intense and logistics remain a constraint.
• US FOB Soybeans No. 2: Sideways in a narrow range, tracking CBOT with limited directional drivers before harvest pace accelerates.
• China FOB Beijing soybeans: Largely stable, with crushers balancing cautious meal demand against still‑supportive margins and imported bean availability.