Soybeans Supported by Robust Argentine Meal Demand as FOB Prices Stabilise

Strong demand for Argentine soybean meal from the EU, Türkiye, Vietnam and Indonesia is keeping crushing margins attractive and underpinning global soybean use, while flat-to-soft FOB prices in key origins point to a broadly balanced but demand-supported market. Soybean meal exports from Argentina in August reached close to 3 million tonnes, with sustained buying from Europe and Asia and a fifth consecutive month of above-year-ago crushing activity. At the same time, spot physical indications in Ukraine, the US and China suggest only modest price moves in euro terms, reflecting comfortable near-term availability. Weather and planting risks in Brazil’s Mato Grosso and parts of the wider Center-West introduce upside risk for later in the 2026/27 season, but for now the core driver is strong meal offtake rather than supply stress.

Prices

Recent offers show a broadly steady soybean complex in EUR terms, with some softness in Black Sea values:

On the futures side, the CBOT November 2026 soybean contract traded around 1,323 USc/bu on 16 September, posting modest daily gains but remaining within a recent range, which is consistent with the largely sideways physical indications when converted to EUR.

Supply & Demand

Argentina remains the key driver on the demand side for raw soybeans via its crushing sector. In August 2026, the country exported about 2.98 million tonnes of soybean meal, marginally above 2.94 million tonnes a year earlier, marking a high utilisation of crushing capacity. Strong buying from the EU, Vietnam, Türkiye and Indonesia underpinned these flows and kept plants running at elevated rates.

By destination, EU imports of Argentine soybean meal rose to roughly 740,000 tonnes year-on-year, Vietnam to 410,000 tonnes, Türkiye to 330,000 tonnes and Indonesia to 270,000 tonnes. This incremental demand confirms Europe and Asia as the main outlets for Argentine product and reinforces the country’s position as a key global supplier of protein meal to feed markets. Consistently strong offtake from these regions is currently one of the single most supportive factors for overall soybean utilisation.

Crushing activity in Argentina reached around 4.1–4.2 million tonnes of soybeans in August, exceeding year-earlier levels for the fifth consecutive month. Robust export demand for both soybean meal and oil, combined with favourable processing margins, is incentivising a high run rate across domestic plants, pulling in beans and reducing any slack in local supply. This dynamic is spilling over into the broader market by tightening available whole-bean export capacity and supporting a firm demand baseline even in the absence of acute crop problems elsewhere.

Sunflower meal exports from Argentina have also increased sharply, reaching about 430,000 tonnes in July–August, up roughly 50% year-on-year, with the EU and UK together taking most of this volume. Lower sunflower meal availability from Ukraine and Russia has diverted additional demand to Argentina. While this slightly diversifies protein sourcing in Europe, Argentine soybean meal remains the core component of the continent’s feed protein imports and continues to anchor demand for soybeans.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Beyond the physical trade flows, policy and commercial signals in Argentina point to persistent export focus. Official data on export sales registrations show record-high volumes of agro-industrial products registered in August, confirming that exporters remain aggressive in locking in overseas commitments, particularly in soy derivatives. This further supports sustained crushing and maintains upward pressure on bean demand into the last quarter of 2026.

From a global balance perspective, the latest available international supply-and-use assessments still characterise the soybean meal and bean markets as relatively well supplied, but with Argentina, Brazil and the US collectively shouldering rising demand from Asia and Europe. In the near term, the combination of strong Argentine meal exports and still-adequate stocks in the US and Brazil is preventing a sharp price spike, but the market is increasingly sensitive to any negative surprises in South American production prospects.

Weather & Planting Outlook

Weather risks are currently concentrated in Brazil, where the 2026/27 soybean planting campaign is getting underway. In Mato Grosso, sowing was authorised from early September, but local reports highlight producer caution due to concerns over delayed and irregular early rains and the influence of El Niño on the rainfall pattern. This may slow initial fieldwork and raises uncertainty around yield potential later in the season.

Seasonal climate guidance for September–November indicates a tendency for below-average rainfall over much of Brazil’s North and Northeast, with above-average precipitation favoured in the South and parts of the western and southern Center-West and southeastern regions. For the main soybean areas of Mato Grosso and neighbouring states, this pattern suggests episodes of intense heat and intermittent moisture deficits during early development, interspersed with more favourable rainfall events. While it is too early to conclude on final crop size, the risk profile argues for a weather premium to persist in prices if dryness episodes extend or intensify.

Trading Outlook

• Crushers & feed buyers (EU/Asia): With Argentine meal exports strong and FOB soybeans relatively stable in EUR terms, consider layering in Q4 2026–Q1 2027 coverage on price dips, particularly for high-protein meal. Strong Argentine supply reduces near-term scarcity risk, but Brazil’s planting-weather uncertainty justifies maintaining moderate forward coverage.
• Producers (Americas, Black Sea): Given sideways but underpinned pricing, hedging a portion of expected 2026/27 production via futures or forward contracts could lock in current margin levels while still keeping some exposure to potential weather-driven rallies later in the season.
• Speculative participants: The combination of robust Argentine demand pull, record export registrations and emerging Brazilian weather risks favours a mildly constructive bias. Strategies such as buying deferred CBOT soybean futures on setbacks, or call spreads, may offer asymmetric exposure if planting issues intensify, while defined risk remains crucial given still-comfortable global balances.

3-day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Ukraine FOB Odesa soybeans: Mildly firm after recent easing; strong meal demand and Black Sea logistics will likely keep EUR/kg levels in a narrow range around current 0.34, with slight upside bias.
• US FOB (Gulf-equivalent) soybeans: CBOT futures strength and steady export demand point to a slightly firmer tone, with flat-to-higher EUR-based indications versus mid-September.
• China FOB soybeans (Beijing reference): Stable to marginally higher in EUR as domestic demand remains solid and external meal markets stay strong; no sharp moves expected absent a new weather shock.