Soybeans under Mild Pressure as Record South American Supply Meets Solid Demand

Soybean futures and by‑products are trading slightly lower, with a gently downward‑sloping forward curve reflecting comfortable global supply and benign short‑term weather. Physical FOB prices in key origins remain broadly stable in EUR terms, signalling balanced nearby demand despite record South American crops. Global soybean fundamentals are shaped by record or near‑record Brazilian output and a solid US acreage base, while crush margins remain supported by firm meal and only moderately softer oil. In this environment, futures drift rather than trend, with modest carry along the curve and no acute nearby tightness. Weather in the US Midwest currently appears non‑threatening for early crop development, while Brazil moves towards a new record harvest, anchoring medium‑term price expectations. Buyers can use current dips to extend coverage, but should avoid aggressive forward sales given ongoing weather and demand uncertainties.

Prices & Futures Structure

CBOT soybeans for July 2026 trade around 1,179 US¢/bu, with nearby contracts down roughly 0.1–0.2% on the day and a very shallow contango out to late 2027. Soybean meal and oil show similarly small daily losses, confirming a broadly steady complex rather than a directional move. Dalian No.1 soybeans in China closed 1–1.5% lower across the forward strip, indicating some pressure from abundant domestic and import supplies.

In the physical market, recent FOB offers converted to EUR show stable to slightly firmer differentials in most origins. Using an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 1.09 USD, current spot indications are approximately:

The combination of gently weaker futures and relatively steady FOB values implies some basis resilience, especially for higher‑quality and niche origins.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Global supply is dominated by a further expansion in Brazilian production. Recent revisions from Brazil’s CONAB point to a 2025/26 soybean crop above 180 million tonnes, a new record that reinforces the perception of ample medium‑term availability. This comes on top of already large 2024/25 inventories, increasing competition among South American exporters.

On the demand side, world soybean consumption continues to grow, driven by feed demand in Asia and steady biofuel mandates supporting soyoil use. USDA’s latest oilseeds outlook projects global soybean production in 2025/26 at roughly 426 million tonnes, up around 3 million tonnes year‑on‑year, with consumption broadly tracking this increase. This balance leaves the stocks‑to‑use ratio comfortable, limiting upside price risk unless weather or policy shocks emerge.

Crush, By‑products & Spreads

CBOT soymeal for July 2026 trades near 326 USD/short ton, almost unchanged on the day, while soyoil hovers just below 79 US¢/lb for July with a mild downward tilt along the curve. The slight softening in oil contrasts with more resilient meal, keeping crush margins reasonably attractive and incentivising continued processing.

The forward curves show modest carry in beans and oil but a relatively flat profile for meal in 2026–27, reflecting structurally strong protein demand from the livestock sector. This configuration encourages crushers to run at high rates, adding to product availability and helping cap further rallies in raw bean prices.

Weather & Crop Progress

In the United States, early soybean planting has progressed well, with only localised dryness issues. Recent regional updates highlight rapid fieldwork in key states such as Nebraska, though some winter wheat and pastures remain under moisture stress. Overall, there are no widespread threats to soybean establishment at this stage.

Medium‑range US climate outlooks from NOAA for early to mid‑June indicate above‑normal temperatures with near‑ to above‑normal precipitation across much of the Corn Belt, a pattern that generally supports vegetative growth rather than stressing the crop. In Brazil, harvest and logistics are proceeding against a backdrop of record production and rising export forecasts, further solidifying the supply buffer.

Trading Outlook

• Producers: Use the current mild contango to layer in sales on bounces rather than at market lows. Consider hedging a portion of 2026/27 production via CBOT futures while preserving upside with options, given still‑elevated weather and policy risks.
• Importers & Feed Users: The combination of soft futures and firm but stable FOB basis offers an opportunity to extend coverage into late 2026. Prioritise origins where logistics and geopolitical risks are lower, but remain flexible between US and Brazil depending on freight and basis moves.
• Crushers: With relatively strong meal versus softer oil, crush margins remain workable. Lock in margins opportunistically by hedging bean input costs and selling meal forward, while remaining cautious on soyoil exposure amid abundant vegetable oil supplies.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, EUR)

• CBOT soybeans (EUR‑equivalent): Slight downside to sideways, with intraday volatility but no strong trend expected.
• CBOT soymeal & soyoil (EUR‑equivalent): Meal steady to marginally firm; oil soft to sideways as vegoil complex remains well supplied.
• FOB physical market: EUR‑denominated FOB offers in US, Black Sea and Asia likely to remain broadly stable, with minor day‑to‑day moves driven more by FX and freight than by flat price.