Soybeans under pressure as Brazil’s exports surge and US demand softens

Soybean prices remain capped as abundant Brazilian supply and weak US export demand outweigh modest firmness in by-products and regional cash markets. The global soybean complex is trading with a slightly heavy tone. Futures in Chicago are stabilising after recent losses, but soymeal is hovering near an eight‑month low and soyoil is edging lower, signalling comfortable nearby supply. Strong Brazilian soymeal and soybean exports continue to pressure world prices, while US export inspections are running well below last year. Chinese buying shows only selective support: recent monthly US arrivals edged up year on year but cumulative US market share has fallen sharply in favour of Brazil. In Europe and the Black Sea, basis levels for non‑GMO and specialty origins are firmer than futures, but upside remains constrained by the global surplus.

Prices

CBOT soybean futures for nearby contracts are trading around 11.15–11.20 USD/bu, showing only marginal gains on the day and reflecting a fragile consolidation after recent declines. Soybean oil futures along the curve are slightly in the red (around 60–70 US‑cents/lb), confirming the lack of strong bullish momentum from the vegoil side. Soybean meal futures have rebounded modestly intraday but remain close to their lowest levels in roughly eight months near 300 USD/short ton, underlining the global availability of meal.

Physical markets show a more mixed picture. Non‑GMO soybeans CPT Odesa are indicated around 0.40 EUR/kg, up about 1–1.5% over the last week, while FOB US No. 2 soybeans sit near 0.68 EUR/kg, broadly steady over the same period. Indian and Chinese offers remain at a premium, with Indian sortex‑clean beans near 0.89 EUR/kg and Chinese yellow beans around 0.72–0.81 EUR/kg FOB, supported by quality and niche demand rather than by global tightness.

Supply & Demand

The key bearish driver remains Brazil. The country’s exporters’ association ANEC has only slightly trimmed its June 2026 soybean meal export forecast to 2.24 million tonnes; volumes are still 34.4% above last year’s 1.67 million tonnes, keeping global meal availability ample and weighing on prices. This comes on top of large soybean exports earlier in the year, ensuring that crushers have sufficient beans to sustain high crush rates and maintain strong meal flows into world markets.

In contrast, US export performance is weak. Export inspections for soybeans in the week to 18 June fell to just 241,045 tonnes, a marketing‑year low and 54.8% below the same week last year. Cumulative inspections so far in the current marketing year stand at 36.85 million tonnes, about 19% under last year, underscoring that US supplies are being outcompeted in key destinations. Mexico and China still feature as important buyers, taking 72,877 tonnes and 69,508 tonnes respectively in the latest week, but volumes are insufficient to offset the overall shortfall.

Chinese demand remains the pivotal swing factor. In May 2026, China imported 1.66 million tonnes of US soybeans, slightly above the 1.63 million tonnes recorded a year earlier, offering some support to US exporters in that month. However, over January–May 2026, Chinese imports of US soybeans were just 8.4 million tonnes, 42.5% below the previous year’s period, while imports from Brazil rose by 6.7% to 22.7 million tonnes. Recent customs data confirm this shift in sourcing, with Brazil consolidating its role as China’s primary supplier even as total Chinese imports remain high.

Looking ahead, the US Soybean Export Council expects China to buy around 25 million tonnes of US soybeans in 2026/27. This prospective volume keeps the market highly sensitive to any changes in Chinese policy, crush margins or feed demand, but for now the realized pace suggests that Brazil and, at the margin, other South American origins will continue to dominate Chinese purchases.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals across the complex currently favour buyers. High Brazilian soymeal exports and comfortable global stocks are pushing meal prices to multi‑month lows, while soyoil is trading softer in line with a broadly well‑supplied vegoil market. The pressure from by‑products feeds back into soybean values, as crushers’ forward margins remain positive even at lower bean prices, encouraging continued high utilisation rates in Brazil and other export hubs.

On the demand side, US export shortfalls highlight that global consumption can be met without aggressively drawing on US supplies. Domestic US crush and biodiesel demand provide a floor, but weak export programmes reduce the need for price rationing. At the same time, the strong price competitiveness of Brazilian beans and meal limits the ability of other origins, including Ukraine and the US, to push through higher basis levels despite localized tightness in non‑GMO and specialty segments.

Weather‑wise, immediate concern is more pronounced in other oilseeds, notably rapeseed in Western Europe and canola in parts of Australia, where heat and drought risks are emerging. For soybeans, key US Midwest and Brazilian off‑season conditions currently do not point to an imminent supply shock. Short‑term forecasts for major producing regions in the US indicate seasonally warm temperatures with scattered showers, broadly neutral for crop prospects at this stage, while Brazil is between main crop cycles, with moisture profiles still adequate in most areas.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

With Brazilian exports running strong and US export inspections lagging, the near‑term balance for soybeans and soymeal remains comfortably supplied. Any price rallies are likely to face selling interest from South American origin and from end‑users looking to extend coverage at favourable levels. However, the market retains upside risk from potential weather issues later in the US growing season and from any surprise shifts in Chinese buying behaviour.

• Importers & feed buyers: Consider extending soymeal and soybean coverage on dips while CBOT meal hovers near eight‑month lows and physical offers in the Black Sea remain competitive. Prioritise Brazilian‑linked origins where logistics are reliable, but monitor US basis for opportunistic buying if export weakness deepens.
• Producers (US, Black Sea, India): Use modest futures rebounds to incrementally hedge 2026/27 production, especially for higher‑cost non‑GMO segments. Basis remains the key lever: maintain firm premiums where quality is scarce, but be prepared for increased competition from Brazil in key Asian destinations.
• Traders & speculators: The fundamental picture currently favours a slightly bearish-to‑range‑bound stance. Strategies such as selling rallies in soybeans and soymeal or using options to position for a later‑season weather rally in the US may offer attractive risk‑reward profiles.

Over the next three trading days, soybean futures on CBOT are expected to trade sideways to slightly lower in EUR terms, with abundant Brazilian supply capping rallies. European non‑GMO cash premiums are likely to hold firm relative to futures, while Black Sea offers should stay competitive but stable. Asian physical markets, particularly in China and Vietnam, are expected to remain well supplied, limiting any short‑term upside in regional import prices.