🌱 Soybeans Under Pressure as China Cuts Demand and U.S. Data Disappoints
Weak U.S. economic signals, strong planting progress, and China’s plan to reduce soymeal use continued to weigh heavily on global soybean prices.
📊 Market Overview – April 29, 2025
📍 CBOT Soybeans (July 25)
| Price (ct/bu) | EUR/t (approx) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1,052.75 | ~340 EUR/t | -9.75 |
📍 USDA Export Inspections (Week ending April 24)
| Metric | Volume |
|---|---|
| Weekly exports | 439,341 t |
| W/W change | -21% |
| Y/Y change | +59% |
| Top destinations | China (205k), Mexico (61k), Germany (57k) |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
🇺🇸 U.S. Soybeans: Trade Uncertainty and Macro Headwinds
- Prices dropped due to ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions.
- Consumer confidence fell to a 5-year low; job market signals are also weak.
- Planting progress at 18%, outpacing analyst expectations and the 5-year average.
- Large harvests in South America amplify global supply pressure.
🇨🇳 China’s Feed Strategy: Sharp Cut in Soymeal Use
- China aims to reduce the soymeal share in animal feed to ~10%.
- Grain portion to increase to ~60%.
- Move targets long-term reduction of dependency on U.S. soybean imports.
- A strategy was released Tuesday by China’s Ministry of Agriculture.
🇦🇷 Argentina: Harvest Advances but Farmers Hold Stocks
- Dry weather accelerates harvest conditions.
- Argentine farmers are reluctant to sell, hoping for lower export taxes.
- The market sees delayed export flows despite high harvest activity.
🇲🇾 Palm Oil and Energy Prices Add Pressure
- Lower palm oil futures and declining crude oil markets contributed to bearish sentiment across oilseeds.
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