Stable Brazil Nut Prices in Dordrecht Amid Tight Amazonian Supply

Brazil nut prices in the Dutch wholesale hub of Dordrecht are holding remarkably steady despite ongoing supply stress in the Amazon and elevated import prices across Europe. FCA Dordrecht quotes for conventional medium Brazil nuts (non-organic, NL origin listing) have printed unchanged at EUR 6.50/kg for at least the last four weekly updates (14 March, 7 March, 28 February and 21 February 2026). This flat price pattern contrasts with the broader European market narrative, where Brazil nut import prices surged in 2025 on the back of drought-related crop losses in Bolivia and Brazil, leaving buyers wary of further volatility. Industry data point to a sharply smaller 2025/26 crop and a 70%+ jump in average EU import prices compared with the prior year, yet current Dutch offers suggest that local traders have already priced in much of the global tightness and are now marking time rather than chasing prices higher. At the same time, mild, relatively dry mid-March weather in the Netherlands is supportive for logistics, helping maintain smooth inland distribution via Rotterdam/Dordrecht without weather-related cost spikes. For now, local buyers see a balanced short-term market: upstream Amazon supply remains structurally tight, but immediate availability in Dutch warehouses appears adequate, keeping FCA levels range-bound. The risk is that any renewed weather or logistical shock in Bolivia, Peru or Brazil could quickly ripple through to Dutch offers, given the EU’s heavy reliance on these origins for Brazil nuts.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

The latest CM Broker data for the Netherlands shows a stable price environment for Brazil nuts at Dordrecht.

Spot and Recent Price Trend – FCA Dordrecht (NL)

Date	Location	Product	Delivery terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly change (EUR/kg)	Weekly change (%)	Market sentiment
2026-03-14	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	FCA	6.50	0.00 vs 2026-03-07	0%	Stable / consolidated
2026-03-07	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	FCA	6.50	0.00 vs 2026-02-28	0%	Stable
2026-02-28	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	FCA	6.50	0.00 vs 2026-02-21	0%	Stable
2026-02-21	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	FCA	6.50	0.00 vs 2026-02-14	0%	Stable
2026-02-14	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	FCA	6.50	n/a	n/a	Stable start of series

Benchmark & International Context (Converted to EUR)

While there is no central exchange for Brazil nuts, several benchmarks and reference points help frame current Dutch FCA prices:

• Wholesale Brazil nut prices in Brazil for early 2026 are indicated around USD 2.09–2.70/kg, which converts roughly to EUR 1.90–2.45/kg at recent FX rates.
• Assessment for Germany in Q3 2025 showed Brazil nut prices near USD 8,978/tonne (about USD 8.98/kg ≈ EUR 8.20/kg), reflecting tight supply into the EU.
• Retail/wholesale offers across European online platforms in March 2026 show Brazil nut prices often in the GBP 9.29–20.13/kg range (≈ EUR 10.80–23.50/kg), implying a substantial margin over bulk import or FCA levels in port hubs like Rotterdam/Dordrecht.

Region / Market	Reference level (local)	Approx. price (EUR/kg)	Comment
Dordrecht FCA (NL)	EUR 6.50/kg	6.50	CM Broker quote, stable since mid-February 2026
Germany wholesale (Q3 2025)	USD 8,978/tonne	≈ 8.20	Historical reference; reflects earlier price spike in EU
Brazil wholesale (early 2026)	USD 2.09–2.70/kg	≈ 1.90–2.45	Origin prices; exclude freight, insurance and EU compliance costs
EU retail/online (March 2026)	GBP 9.29–20.13/kg	≈ 10.80–23.50	Consumer-level prices; large gap vs FCA Dordrecht

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Global Supply

• Concentration of origin: Bolivia, Peru and Brazil account for the overwhelming majority of global Brazil nut production; Bolivia alone provides roughly three-quarters of world output and around 83% of EU imports, with Peru and Brazil far behind.
• Smaller 2025/26 crop: The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) reported that the 2025/26 Amazonia (Brazil) nut crop is expected around 63,060 tonnes, about 37% below the previous season, largely due to extreme drought in the Amazon.
• Amazon drought impact: Severe drought conditions in 2025 led to a pronounced drop in fruiting, especially in Bolivia, pushing prices sharply higher and raising concerns of a repeat of the 2017 spike when prices tripled after a crop failure.
• Prospects for recovery: Some industry sources highlight that Brazil nut trees often compensate poor years with stronger fruiting later, suggesting a potential medium-term recovery in harvests once weather normalizes.
• New market outlets: Brazil has recently secured new market access for Brazil nuts into Turkey, adding competition for EU buyers for limited origin supply.

EU & Dutch Demand

• Strong EU nut demand: EU spending on nuts reached record levels in 2025; import values rose across categories including pistachios and cashews, signalling robust consumer demand for nuts as a whole.
• Brazil nuts in EU mix: Within this, Brazil nuts remain a niche but high-value segment, with the EU sourcing more than four-fifths of volumes from Bolivia.
• Netherlands as hub: The Netherlands acts as a key European trading and distribution centre for nuts via Rotterdam and Dordrecht, with specialized trading companies such as Acomo/Catz International and various importers and distributors active in nuts and dried fruits.
• Downstream resilience: Despite high import prices, broader EU agri-food trade remained in surplus in 2025, suggesting that higher values have so far been absorbed without collapsing demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Structural Factors

Production & Stocks (Indicative)

Country / Region	Role	Indicative share of global production	Notes
Bolivia	Main exporter	≈ 74–78%	Dominant supplier to EU; 98% of national production exported, making local market heavily export-driven.
Peru	Secondary origin	≈ 14–16%	Key backup origin when Bolivian supply is short; also impacted by Amazon weather.
Brazil	Origin + growing exporter	≈ 6–9%	Production around 35,000 tonnes with expectations for recovery in 2025/26; gaining access to new markets like Turkey.
EU (incl. NL)	Import & distribution hub	Minimal production	Dependent on imports; Netherlands acts as logistics and re-export hub via Rotterdam/Dordrecht.

• Inventory situation: Industry reports suggest that processors and traders built some stocks ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and in response to news of the smaller 2025/26 crop, which may now be cushioning the immediate impact of upstream tightness on Dutch FCA prices. This is consistent with similar stock-building noted for other imported commodities such as soybean meal in the EU.
• Regulatory backdrop: Implementation of the EUDR is pushing Brazil nut exporters to demonstrate deforestation-free supply chains, adding compliance costs and potentially filtering out some supply, although nuts collected from natural forest systems may be relatively well-positioned versus plantation crops.

⛅ Weather Outlook – Dordrecht & Logistics

Brazil nut trees are produced in the Amazon, but for the next three days the main immediate factor for Dutch FCA prices is local logistics and port operations around Dordrecht/Rotterdam.

Dordrecht (NL) 3‑Day Weather Summary

Date	Conditions	High (°C)	Low (°C)	Logistics impact
Sunday, 15 March 2026	Partly sunny	≈ 12	≈ 5	Normal operations; no weather disruptions expected.
Monday, 16 March 2026	Partly sunny, chance of a morning shower	≈ 11	≈ 8	Minor showers possible but not enough to hinder truck or barge movements.
Tuesday, 17 March 2026	Mostly cloudy, warmer	≈ 16	≈ 6	Favourable for handling and warehouse operations.

• Short-term assessment: Weather in Dordrecht is benign, with mild temperatures and only light showers expected. No meaningful impact on port throughput, container handling or inland truck flows is anticipated over the next three days, so logistics should remain smooth and neutral for local Brazil nut prices.

📆 Short-Term Trading Outlook (Price-Driven)

• Bias: Near-term price bias is sideways to slightly firm around EUR 6.50/kg FCA Dordrecht, given stable quotes and persistent global supply tightness.
• Support levels: Strong fundamental support is seen around EUR 6.00–6.50/kg, given elevated import prices reported in 2025 and the still-constrained 2025/26 crop.
• Upside risks: Any renewed negative news on Amazon weather, shipping delays from Bolivia/Peru/Brazil, or stricter enforcement of EUDR traceability could trigger a renewed up‑leg in EU prices.
• Downside risks: A faster‑than‑expected harvest rebound or softer EU consumer demand (for example from broader economic slowdown) could ease prices, but this is not yet visible in current offers or trade statistics.

Recommendations for Market Participants

• Importers / Traders (NL, EU):
  • Maintain coverage for Q2–Q3 2026 at current FCA levels around EUR 6.50/kg; risk-reward still favours having volume given upstream tightness.
  • Consider staggered purchases (e.g., 2–3 tranches) to average costs, given potential for both corrective dips and weather‑driven spikes.
• Roasters & Food Manufacturers:
  • Use the current price plateau to lock in at least 2–3 months of physical supply, especially for contracts with fixed retail pricing.
  • Monitor developments in Bolivian and Brazilian export flows and any new guidance from the INC regarding the 2026/27 crop.
• Retailers:
  • Given the large gap between FCA and retail prices in many EU markets, there is some room to run promotions without eroding margins, but inventory replacement costs could rise if origin prices spike again.

🔮 3‑Day Regional Price Indication – Dordrecht (NL)

Assuming unchanged global fundamentals over the next three days and benign local weather, Brazil nut prices in Dordrecht are expected to remain range‑bound.

Date	Location	Product	Expected range (EUR/kg, FCA)	Direction	Comment
2026-03-15	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	6.45 – 6.55	Stable	No change vs last quote; calm logistics and no new origin news.
2026-03-16	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	6.45 – 6.60	Stable to slightly firm	Minor upside risk if buyers extend coverage early in the week.
2026-03-17	Dordrecht (NL)	Brazil nuts, medium, conventional	6.45 – 6.60	Stable	Weather-neutral, fundamentals unchanged; consolidation around EUR 6.50/kg.