Star Anise Prices Stable to Softer as India Monsoon and Vietnam Heatwave Shape Outlook

Star anise prices from India and Vietnam are edging slightly softer, with organic offers in both origins broadly stable and only marginal week‑on‑week declines in EUR terms. Weather remains the key watchpoint: a delayed, weaker Indian monsoon and hot conditions in northern Vietnam could tighten medium‑term supply, but no immediate crop shock is visible. Global spice markets are currently calm but cautious. In India, a ‘lazy’ monsoon onset under El Niño conditions is raising concerns over rain‑fed spice crops, even though early impacts on anise/badian remain limited. In Vietnam, forecasters highlight fresh heatwaves across northern and central regions, which may stress trees if prolonged but so far have not triggered supply disruptions. Trade flows continue normally with no major logistical blockages reported. Buyers are therefore seeing a narrow, slightly softer price band and are advised to use this window to cover near‑term needs while keeping optionality for weather‑driven volatility later in the season.

Prices & Recent Moves

Indicative current offers (FOB, converted to EUR at ~1.00 USD/EUR for simplicity):

Domestic Indian spice market bulletins confirm generally steady pricing across many minor spices, with only modest fluctuations and no sign of panic buying. For seeds and related HS 090961 products out of Vietnam (including anise/badian group), export price benchmarks also indicate only mild month‑on‑month weakness.​

Supply, Weather & Crop Conditions

India (IN)

• Southwest monsoon onset over India has been delayed and is progressing unevenly, with forecasts pointing to ~90–94% of normal seasonal rainfall under El Niño.
• Climate and agri‑economic commentary warns that weaker rains could trim yields in several crops and support Indian food inflation later in the year, though immediate effects on star anise are still limited.
• Weather community updates show monsoon winds well established over the south and east but slower into central and western belts, implying a ‘lazy’ but ongoing advance.

Vietnam (VN)

• Official forecasts signal a new heatwave building over northern and central Vietnam from 13–14 June, with severe heat in lowland areas.
• Regional crop bulletins note generally adequate moisture across much of mainland Southeast Asia, but warn that persistent heat could stress perennial trees if it extends beyond the current episode.
• No major supply chain disruptions or disease outbreaks have been reported in the last few days, and export channels remain open.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

• Spice market round‑ups from India highlight a broadly balanced situation: some spices face tightness, but there is no immediate squeeze in anise/badian, keeping prices range‑bound.
• Global climate agencies confirm ongoing El Niño conditions, which heighten the risk of erratic rainfall and heat events in Asia through the season, a medium‑term bullish factor if crop stress materialises.
• Indian exchanges are rolling June agri contracts, but star anise is largely an off‑exchange, physical market; speculative positioning is therefore limited and fundamentals‑driven.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect a sideways to slightly softer tone as physical demand is moderate and weather risks are not yet translating into crop losses. Use current levels for routine coverage rather than aggressive stocking.
• Medium‑term (through Q3 2026): Monitor Indian monsoon progress and Vietnamese heatwaves closely. Any confirmation of yield pressure or higher rejection rates in either origin could flip sentiment bullish and tighten offers.
• Origin preferences: Vietnam conventional star anise remains at a premium; India and Vietnamese organic lots provide relatively better value for buyers focusing on cost per active content.
• Risk management: Importers should stagger purchases and avoid over‑concentration in a single origin given weather uncertainties linked to El Niño.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• India – FOB New Delhi (IN): Star anise organic prices likely to stay in a tight band around current ~EUR 6.1/kg, bias slightly softer if domestic demand remains subdued.
• Vietnam – FOB Hanoi (VN): Organic and conventional star anise expected to hold broadly steady near ~EUR 7.0–7.7/kg over the next three days, with only minor intraday negotiation wiggle room.