Steady Dried Apple Prices Amid Weather Risks in Türkiye and China Supply Focus

Dried apple cube prices in Europe are broadly steady with a slight firming bias, while weather in Türkiye’s key fruit region Malatya currently looks seasonally cool but stable, easing immediate frost concerns. Limited near‑term supply pressure from China and resilient consumer demand keep the market supported.

After a year of severe frost damage in 2025, Turkish stone‑fruit growers entered spring 2026 with cautious optimism, and current forecasts for Malatya show cool, mostly dry weather and no imminent frost threat over the next three days. At the same time, Europe continues to rely heavily on Chinese dried apple cubes, with no fresh reports of disruptive weather or crop losses in major Chinese growing areas in the last few days. Buyers therefore face a market where prices are stable, but risk premia remain embedded due to recent climate volatility and lingering uncertainty over the 2026 fruit harvests.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Moves

Dried apple cubes ex-warehouse Netherlands (Chinese origin) show only marginal day-to-day changes, indicating a broadly balanced spot market. The minor upticks seen in late April and early May point to steady demand from food processors and limited downside from the supply side.

Product	Origin	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1W Trend
Dried apple cubes 5–7 mm	China	NL (Dordrecht)	FCA	≈ 4.42	Flat / +0.5%
Dried apple cubes 8–10 mm	China	NL (Dordrecht)	FCA	≈ 4.32	Flat / +0.5%
Dried apple cubes 10–12 mm	China	NL (Dordrecht)	FCA	≈ 4.37	Flat / +0.5%

FOB dried apricot prices from Malatya remain historically firm after last year’s frost‑hit harvest, indirectly supporting dried apple pricing as some buyers substitute across dried fruits. The absence of new, bearish macro or freight shocks over the last days leaves the current price corridor intact.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Context

On the supply side, Türkiye’s broader fruit sector is still recovering from the extreme frost of April 2025, but assessments for the 2026 stone‑fruit season now point to a partial rebound if weather remains favorable. Malatya, which dominates global dried apricot output and influences regional drying capacity and labor, has seen blooming orchards and improved sentiment compared with last year, though hail at the end of April caused localized damage to apricot and other fruit trees.

For the next three days (6–8 May), Malatya’s forecast shows cool but non‑freezing temperatures with highs around 16–20°C and lows 6–8°C, mostly clouds and sunshine and no severe precipitation. This pattern supports ongoing fruit set and reduces immediate weather‑driven supply risks for the 2026 crop. Chinese apple‑growing regions have not reported major new frost or hail events in the last 72 hours in international coverage, suggesting no fresh shock to dried apple raw‑material availability.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Fundamentally, the dried fruit complex remains underpinned by:

• Constrained old‑crop stocks in Türkiye after the 2025 frost, which keep competing dried fruit prices elevated and limit discounting pressure on dried apples.
• Gradual recovery in 2026 stone‑fruit production in Central and Eastern Anatolia, with current assessments calling for 60–80% of normal production if the rest of spring remains benign.
• Stable EU demand from bakery, cereal and snack manufacturers, which has not shown signs of sharp price sensitivity in the last weeks.

Risk premia remain in the market because the main weather‑sensitive window for tree fruit is not fully closed, as shown by recent hail in Malatya and ongoing discussion of agricultural frost risks at national level. However, the lack of acute events in the last few days supports a sideways bias rather than a sharp spike in dried apple cube prices.

📆 3-Day Outlook & Trading Pointers

Weather in TR (Malatya, 6–8 May 2026): Cool, partly cloudy conditions with daytime highs rising from the mid‑teens to around 20°C and nights staying safely above freezing. No severe storms are currently forecast. This should help stabilize sentiment around the upcoming 2026 dried fruit crop.

• Buyers (food industry, packers): Use the current calm to secure near‑term coverage (1–3 months) in dried apple cubes at today’s levels, while avoiding over‑extension into Q4 until more is known about Northern Hemisphere apple yields.
• Sellers/packers: Maintain offer discipline; with competing dried fruits still tight and no bearish weather shock, there is little need for aggressive discounting in the next days.
• Risk watch: Monitor further field assessments in Malatya after the late‑April hail and any new weather alerts in major Chinese apple provinces that could tighten raw‑material supply.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, EUR)

• EU dried apple cubes FCA NL: Stable to slightly firm (sideways, ±1%).
• TR dried apricots FOB Malatya: Firm, bias higher on tight stocks and ongoing damage assessments.