Sugar #11 Curve Firms While Brazilian Refined Prices Edge Higher

Nearby raw sugar futures on ICE are stabilising just above 13 US¢/lb, while the forward curve for 2027–2029 is grinding modestly higher, pointing to a market exiting the tightness of recent seasons but still pricing in medium‑term risk. Sugar cane fundamentals remain shaped by robust Brazilian output, solid export flows and a more comfortable global stocks picture. However, the slightly upward‑sloping futures curve and firm refined export quotes from Brazil suggest that buyers are still willing to pay a premium for forward coverage. Weather in key cane regions and gasoline policy in Brazil remain the critical swing factors for the coming months.

Prices

Across the ICE Sugar #11 board (24 June 2026), the nearby Jul-26 contract closed unchanged at 13.42 US¢/lb, while Oct-26 gained slightly to 14.02 US¢/lb. Further out, Mar-27 settled at 14.95 US¢/lb and Oct-27 at 15.24 US¢/lb, with contracts through mid‑2028–2029 gradually stepping up toward 16.3–16.5 US¢/lb.

This structure reflects a gently upward‑sloping forward curve from mid‑2026 onward, consistent with a market that is no longer in acute deficit but still prices some risk for the outer years. Daily volumes are concentrated in the 2026–2027 maturities, confirming that near‑term liquidity and hedging interest remain strongest in the coming two crop years.

Note: EUR/t values are approximate, based on typical raw sugar conversion and recent FX levels.

Supply & Demand

Current futures levels suggest a more balanced global sugar balance after recent high‑price years that incentivised cane expansion, particularly in Brazil. With contracts out to 2029 trading only moderately above nearby values, the market is not signalling a severe long‑term shortage.

Brazilian export offers for refined sugar (ICUMSA 45, FOB São Paulo) around 0.53 EUR/kg confirm that refined values remain significantly above the raw futures equivalent, reflecting refining costs, logistics and strong import demand from key destinations. This premium underlines healthy downstream demand even as raw sugar prices consolidate.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the slight contango in the ICE curve points to adequate near‑term availability and rebuilding stocks, yet offers no sign of a pronounced surplus. The step‑up into the 2028–2029 contracts above 16 US¢/lb indicates that the market still prices climate and policy uncertainties into the outer years.

Weather in major cane belts (notably Brazil’s Center‑South and parts of Asia) remains the key watchpoint. Any shift toward persistent dryness or excessive rainfall during critical growth and harvest windows could quickly tighten the balance and flatten or invert the curve, particularly around the 2027–2028 crop cycles.

Trading Outlook

• Producers: Use the firmer 2027–2029 contracts above 15.5–16 US¢/lb (≈ 330–345 EUR/t) to layer in incremental hedges, securing margins while leaving room for upside if weather risk materialises.
• Refiners and industrial buyers: With refined FOB Brazil around 0.53 EUR/kg and modest contango in #11, consider staggering forward coverage across late‑2026 and 2027 to avoid concentration risk at a single maturity.
• Traders and funds: Watch weather developments in Brazil and Asia; any deterioration could trigger a shift from gentle contango toward a tighter curve, favouring long positions in nearer contracts versus deferred.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR)

• ICE Sugar #11 (raw, Jul-26–Oct-26): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR terms, tracking FX and modest risk‑on sentiment.
• Brazil refined export values (FOB São Paulo): Stable to mildly supported around 0.50–0.55 EUR/kg as buyers maintain steady inquiry.
• Overall: Volatility likely contained near current ranges, with weather headlines the main potential catalyst for a short‑term breakout.