Sugar Futures Continue Sliding – October Dips to USD 462.10/t

Sugar Futures Continue Sliding – October Dips to USD 462.10/t

ICE White Sugar No.5 futures extended their decline on Wednesday, with the October 2025 contract closing down 0.32% at USD 462.10/t (EUR 423.51/t). Despite lighter trading volumes, bearish momentum across the curve persisted. EU physical prices remain firm, but pressure from the widening futures discount continues to mount.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Futures Closing Summary (06.08.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Oct 25	462.10	-0.32%	423.51
Dec 25	456.20	-0.42%	418.54
Mar 26	460.00	-0.52%	421.60
May 26	462.00	-0.50%	423.40
Aug 26	463.20	-0.50%	424.56
Dec 26	470.20	-0.45%	431.49

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.916 EUR – ECB reference 06.08.2025)

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🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – No Reaction, but Pressure Rises

📦 Despite multiple days of futures weakness, spot prices in the EU remain unchanged:

• 🇵🇱 KSC (Poland): Stable at €0.635/kg FCA
• 🇩🇪 Südzucker / Nordzucker: Unchanged at €0.70/kg DDP
• 🧊 Refiners remain firm, citing cost structure and limited availability – but buyers increasingly expect price alignment if ICE stays near/below USD 460/t

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 06.08.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Switzerland	Aldi	1.39 €
Hungary	Aldi	~0.90 €

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🌍 Market Drivers

• 📉 Ongoing liquidation in futures positions, despite a quiet macro backdrop
• 🇧🇷 Brazil crush continues uninterrupted; near-record daily volumes
• 🇮🇳 No change in export quota – domestic pricing firming slowly
• 🛢️ Oil and ethanol remain stable – no impulse from energy markets
• 🧊 Physical market split: producers hold, but traders expect adjustments

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🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Dry and optimal for crush; no signs of moisture relief before mid-August
• India: Monsoon performance stabilising – no production concerns
• Thailand: Normal conditions
• EU: Warm weather persists, no logistic bottlenecks reported

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Oct)	0.423	Testing key support – lowest since early July
EU Spot FCA (PL)	0.60–0.64	Unchanged – potential pressure building
DDP Germany	0.70	No change – despite ICE weakness
Retail Germany	0.69	Still lower than the delivered bulk offers
Retail Poland	0.42	Deeply discounted – unsustainable trend

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 Futures soften further, but physical prices remain elevated
📦 Disconnect grows – risk of physical correction increases with every session
⚠️ Market sentiment weakening; without weather/policy impulse, downside risk persists

📌 Recommendations:

• Buyers:
  → Time contracts carefully – price leverage increasing below USD 460
  → Seek spot flexibility or Q4 discounts from second-tier refiners
• Sellers:
  → Monitor pressure closely – firm pricing still defensible, but vulnerable
  → Hedge if ICE breaks below USD 458 with volume
• Traders:
  → Bearish near-term setup; support at USD 458/t, resistance near 468
  → Watch open interest and volume for trend exhaustion signals

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📍 Summary:

ICE Sugar No.5 continues its slow descent, with October closing at a six-week low. The EU physical market remains unshaken — for now. However, as the paper market continues to decline, buyers are starting to push back. With no supply shocks or export restrictions on the horizon, the path of least resistance remains lower unless a fundamental change occurs.