Sugar Futures Mixed – August Pauses, Back Months Edge Higher
On 04 July 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures showed a mixed performance. The August 2025 contract dipped slightly by 0.15% to USD 480.80/t (EUR 448.34/t) after testing highs near USD 488. The rest of the curve posted modest gains, with December and March contracts rising around 0.7–0.8%. The EU spot market remains calm, still detached from ICE volatility.
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (04.07.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 480.80 | -0.15% | 448.34 |
| Oct 25 | 473.70 | +0.59% | 441.71 |
| Dec 25 | 463.20 | +0.78% | 431.94 |
| Mar 26 | 468.70 | +0.81% | 437.06 |
| May 26 | 472.40 | +0.66% | 440.57 |
| Aug 26 | 474.30 | +0.46% | 442.31 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.933 EUR – ECB reference 04.07.2025)
🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Still Flat Despite Futures Strength
📦 European spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.52/kg FCA.
📉 Refiners report ongoing sluggish activity and subdued inquiries.
📊 ICE volatility not reflected in physical transactions.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 04.07.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.448 | Stable after strong rally |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.50–0.52 | No change – market remains disconnected |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | No movement – steady retail pricing |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Deeply discounted – unchanged |
🌍 Market Drivers
- ⚖️ Pause in speculative buying after Thursday’s sharp rally
- 🛢️ Crude oil holds steady – no fresh energy signals
- 🌾 Brazil weather outlook unchanged – harvest progressing normally
- 📉 No new developments from India or Thailand on exports
🔮 3-Day Outlook (5–7 July 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 5 July | 475 – 485 | 442 – 452 |
| 6 July | 470 – 480 | 437 – 448 |
| 7 July | 468 – 478 | 435 – 446 |
📌 Outlook:
The market could consolidate near current levels. A breakout above USD 488/t would require stronger fundamental triggers or fund flows.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
⚖️ Market cools down after rapid rebound
📦 EU physical buyers still not engaging
📉 Futures remain disconnected from spot prices
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Wait for better alignment with spot; no urgency
- 📦 Sellers: Use October/December price strength for forward hedging
- 📊 Traders: Key resistance remains near USD 488–490/t – watch for rejection
📍 Summary:
The sugar market enters a consolidation phase. While futures remain well bid, physical markets are still quiet. Without fundamental support, upside may be capped short-term.