📈 Sugar Futures Rally – Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Pressure Remains
On 25 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures posted strong gains across all contracts. The August 2025 contract rose by 1.85% to USD 514.00/t (EUR 478.02/t). While the technical rebound brought temporary relief, the EU spot market remains detached from international dynamics, sustained by trade protections. Consumer sugar prices in supermarkets are showing a different, much softer trend.
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FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (25.04.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 514.00 | +1.85% | 478.02 |
| Oct 25 | 503.80 | +1.55% | 468.53 |
| Dec 25 | 499.80 | +1.34% | 464.81 |
| Mar 26 | 500.40 | +1.18% | 465.37 |
| May 26 | 496.10 | +1.01% | 461.38 |
| Aug 26 | 492.50 | +0.89% | 458.03 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🧭 Market Overview
📈 Technical Bounce – But Fundamentals Unchanged
– The strong movement reflects short-covering and technical buying, not fresh fundamental support.
– Brazilian exports remain high; no major supply disruptions reported.
🇪🇺 EU Market Remains Protected and Price-Inflated
– FCA spot prices continue at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, detached from global benchmarks.
– Mercosur ratification delays continue to shield the EU sugar market from external competition.
🛍️ Consumer Prices Tell a Different Story
– Supermarket prices for 1 kg of sugar remain stable or falling across most markets.
– The gap between retail prices and industrial FCA offers is wider than ever.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 25.04.2025)
Last checked within the last 3 days.
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) | Note/Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Edeka | 0.89 € | Standard price after adjustment |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € | Regular shelf price |
| Austria | BILLA | 1.49 € | Feinkristallzucker 1 kg |
| Czech Rep. | Kaufland | 0.50 € | With Kaufland Card |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € | Promotional offer |
| UK | Tesco | 0.96 € | £0.82 Aldi Price Match |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € | Bonus price |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € | Prix Garantie Kristallzucker |
| Hungary | Tesco Hungary | 0.69 € | Kristálycukor, 1 kg |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (26–28 April 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr | 508 – 518 | 472 – 481 |
| 27 Apr | 505 – 515 | 469 – 479 |
| 28 Apr | 500 – 510 | 465 – 474 |
📌 Outlook:
The rally could be short-lived without fundamental support (demand boost or supply issues). Trend risk remains on the downside for a longer term.
📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025 forecast)
| Year | Production | Consumption | Ending Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 Mt | 18.0 Mt | 4.0 Mt |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 3.8 Mt |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 Mt | 17.5 Mt | 3.5 Mt |
| 2024/25* | 16.2 Mt | 17.3 Mt | 3.3 Mt |
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Futures markets show technical strength, but sustainability is questionable.
❌ EU market remains overpriced compared to global trends, shielded by tariffs and import barriers.
📉 Retail signals and global flows argue against significant long-term rallies.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Do not chase prices; use the rally to negotiate discounts.
- 📦 Sellers: Lock in forward contracts while futures offer support, but be cautious.
- 📊 Traders: Monitor resistance zones around EUR 480–485/t – upside looks capped.
📍 Summary:
Short-term bullish, long-term sceptical.
Policy protection holds for now, but fundamentals don’t justify EU price levels.
