Sugar Futures Rebound Further – EU Factories Face Mounting Pressure Despite Global Lift

Sugar Futures Rebound Further – EU Factories Face Mounting Pressure Despite Global Lift

On 3 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures extended their recovery for a third consecutive session. The August 2025 contract rose by 0.59% to USD 473.70/t (EUR 440.54/t). However, spot prices in the EU edged lower by 1–2 cents/kg, reflecting intense competitive and margin pressure on European sugar producers.

---

📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (03.06.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	473.70	+0.59%	440.54
Oct 25	469.20	+0.19%	436.36
Dec 25	471.00	+0.19%	438.03
Mar 26	477.20	+0.34%	443.80
May 26	478.20	+0.38%	444.73
Aug 26	477.90	+0.27%	444.45

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

---

🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Spot Prices Erode Further

📉 FCA spot prices in the EU fell slightly to EUR 0.52–0.55/kg, down 1–2 cents from last week.
📦 Pressure is growing on EU producers as:

• Global supply remains ample
• Indian and Brazilian volumes flow aggressively into MENA and Asia
• EU processors struggle to maintain margins amid stagnant demand and discounting from Eastern Europe

🧊 Several traders describe the current situation as “price fatigue“—the market is oversupplied, buyers are inactive, and sellers are exposed.

---

🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 03.06.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

---

📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.441	Slight rise – supported by technical buying
EU Spot FCA	0.52–0.55	Slipping further under factory pressure
Retail Germany	0.69	Unchanged
Retail Poland	0.42	Below wholesale – aggressive competition

---

🌍 Global Context

🌾 Brazilian exports remain strong with high shipping volumes.
🇮🇳 India’s harvest outlook remains favourable – few domestic constraints.
📉 The EU now faces a global market awash in supply while demand indicators remain neutral.

---

🔮 3-Day Forecast (4–6 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
4 June	470 – 480	437 – 446
5 June	468 – 478	435 – 444
6 June	465 – 475	432 – 442

📌 Outlook:
Near-term gains are likely to fade unless new physical interest emerges.

---

🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📈 ICE Sugar continues to recover, but is fundamentally fragile
📦 EU spot shows no lift – in fact, factories are lowering prices to chase volumes
📉 Margin stress is rising, especially in Western Europe

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Take advantage of discounting – FCA levels under EUR 0.54/kg are realistic
• 📦 Sellers: Rethink pricing strategy – Q3 contract pressure is growing
• 📊 Traders: Be cautious – short covering may be nearing its limit without new catalysts

📍 Summary:
Futures rise, but the real market remains under stress. The EU sugar sector is feeling the squeeze, and June may bring further discounting.