Sugar Market Attempts Rebound – Short-Term Gains After Days of Losses

📉 Sugar Market Attempts Rebound – Short-Term Gains After Days of Losses

On 2 May 2025, the sugar market showed signs of stabilisation. The August 2025 contract increased 0.29% to USD 479.10/t (EUR 445.56/t), while front-month contracts remained under pressure. Despite a cautious uptick in longer maturities, overall sentiment remains fragile amid persistent supply concerns and tepid demand. EU spot prices continue to hover between EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA, signalling a disconnect from global softness.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (02.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	489.70	-0.84%	455.42
Oct 25	479.30	-0.73%	445.75
Dec 25	477.10	-0.38%	443.70
Mar 26	480.30	-0.12%	446.68
May 26	479.90	+0.15%	446.31
Aug 26	479.10	+0.29%	445.56

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Signs of Stabilisation – But Bearish Momentum Lingers
– Front contracts (Aug–Dec 2025) still posted modest losses.
– Deferred contracts (2026–2028) recorded marginal gains on light volume.
– The market remains under pressure due to large expected output in Brazil and no pickup in global demand.

🇪🇺 EU FCA Prices Static
– The traders’ report offers FCA between EUR 0.56 and 0.59/kg for white sugar.
– No sign of softening despite a ~10% drop on ICE No.5 within 2 weeks.

🛒 Retail Prices Still Elevated
– No visible adjustment in consumer shelf prices in major EU markets.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 02.05.2025)

Verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Aldi	0.85 €	Shelf price (standard)
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promo price
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi price match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Prix Garantie
Hungary	Tesco	0.69 €	Kristálycukor

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (3–5 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
03 May	485 – 495	451 – 460
04 May	480 – 490	446 – 456
05 May	475 – 485	442 – 451

📌 Outlook:
The market may attempt to consolidate between USD 480–490/t, but a downward bias remains dominant.

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📊 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Minor rebound in deferred contracts – but sentiment remains fragile.
⚠️ The global market is saturated; buyers are reluctant to lock in volumes.
📊 Support seen at USD 475/t – if broken, selling could accelerate.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Stay defensive – further downside remains possible.
• 📦 Sellers: Hedge Q3 positions; monitor Brazil’s weather closely.
• 📈 Traders: Watch for a technical bounce near USD 480–485/t.

📍 Summary: Slight pause in the decline – but not a trend reversal yet.