Sugar Market Cools After Breakout – Futures Ease as Buyers Pause

📉 Sugar Market Cools After Breakout – Futures Ease as Buyers Pause

On 14 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures retreated slightly following a strong rally. The August 2025 contract closed at USD 503.90/t (EUR 468.63/t), down 1.17%. While the market remains technically strong, profit-taking and cautious demand pulled prices back below USD 510. Meanwhile, EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, and retail prices across Europe are largely stable.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (14.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	503.90	-1.17%	468.63
Oct 25	499.30	-0.86%	464.35
Dec 25	498.70	-0.76%	463.79
Mar 26	501.30	-0.68%	466.20
May 26	499.00	-0.60%	463.07
Aug 26	496.10	-0.54%	460.37

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot

📍 FCA spot prices remain stable at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
📉 No movement from producers despite fluctuations in futures.
📦 Buyer resistance above EUR 0.60/kg continues across the region.

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🛒 Current Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, as of 14 May 2025)

Prices verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.469	Converted from USD 503.90/t
EU Spot FCA	0.56–0.59	No change reported in over a week
Retail Germany	0.69	Kaufland shelf price
Retail Poland	0.42	Lowest shelf price across the EU

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (15–17 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
15 May	500 – 510	465 – 474
16 May	495 – 505	460 – 469
17 May	490 – 500	456 – 465

📌 Outlook:
The correction may continue short term as traders digest recent gains. Physical market remains detached from futures direction.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Market still technically bullish, but faces resistance above USD 510/t.
📉 Fundamentals (ample supply, sluggish demand) remain neutral to bearish.
🛍️ Retail prices show no impact from futures volatility – margins stable.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Take advantage of futures pullback; re-enter sub-USD 500/t if possible.
• 📦 Sellers: Use strength to lock in Q3 hedges; avoid delays.
• 📊 Traders: Monitor support at USD 495–500/t; upside capped near USD 515.

📍 Summary:
The sugar market is stabilizing after a strong technical rally. EU spot and retail markets remain calm, offering a good environment for strategic positioning.