📉 Sugar Market Cools After Breakout – Futures Ease as Buyers Pause
On 14 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures retreated slightly following a strong rally. The August 2025 contract closed at USD 503.90/t (EUR 468.63/t), down 1.17%. While the market remains technically strong, profit-taking and cautious demand pulled prices back below USD 510. Meanwhile, EU FCA spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, and retail prices across Europe are largely stable.
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ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.47 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (14.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 503.90 | -1.17% | 468.63 |
| Oct 25 | 499.30 | -0.86% | 464.35 |
| Dec 25 | 498.70 | -0.76% | 463.79 |
| Mar 26 | 501.30 | -0.68% | 466.20 |
| May 26 | 499.00 | -0.60% | 463.07 |
| Aug 26 | 496.10 | -0.54% | 460.37 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot
📍 FCA spot prices remain stable at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
📉 No movement from producers despite fluctuations in futures.
📦 Buyer resistance above EUR 0.60/kg continues across the region.
🛒 Current Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, as of 14 May 2025)
Prices verified within the last 3 days.
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.469 | Converted from USD 503.90/t |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.56–0.59 | No change reported in over a week |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Kaufland shelf price |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Lowest shelf price across the EU |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (15–17 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 15 May | 500 – 510 | 465 – 474 |
| 16 May | 495 – 505 | 460 – 469 |
| 17 May | 490 – 500 | 456 – 465 |
📌 Outlook:
The correction may continue short term as traders digest recent gains. Physical market remains detached from futures direction.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Market still technically bullish, but faces resistance above USD 510/t.
📉 Fundamentals (ample supply, sluggish demand) remain neutral to bearish.
🛍️ Retail prices show no impact from futures volatility – margins stable.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Take advantage of futures pullback; re-enter sub-USD 500/t if possible.
- 📦 Sellers: Use strength to lock in Q3 hedges; avoid delays.
- 📊 Traders: Monitor support at USD 495–500/t; upside capped near USD 515.
📍 Summary:
The sugar market is stabilizing after a strong technical rally. EU spot and retail markets remain calm, offering a good environment for strategic positioning.