Sugar Market Drops Again – Demand Lacking as EU Price Hopes Fade
On 22 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw another sharp decline. The August 2025 contract dropped 1.97% to USD 488.10/t (EUR 453.93/t). Despite recent volatility, the market continues to lack demand support. In Europe, sugar producers dream of new campaign prices above EUR 0.60/kg, but analysts warn this is wishful thinking given shrinking EU consumption and mounting global competition.
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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (22.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 488.10 | -1.97% | 453.93 |
| Oct 25 | 483.90 | -1.84% | 450.03 |
| Dec 25 | 483.60 | -1.53% | 449.76 |
| Mar 26 | 486.60 | -1.23% | 452.44 |
| May 26 | 484.90 | -1.07% | 450.96 |
| Aug 26 | 482.50 | -1.02% | 449.72 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Price Optimism vs. Reality
📉 Spot demand in the EU remains stagnant.
📍 FCA prices remain stuck at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
🇪🇺 Producers in several EU countries are now pushing for EUR 0.62–0.65/kg for the 2025/26 campaign.
🔍 Market analysts dismiss this optimism:
“EU sugar consumption is falling, global competition is intensifying. Where should the momentum for a price rally come from? Only sustained drought in Europe could push prices higher.”
🌦️ Some traders cite weather risks as the only possible catalyst for price recovery.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 22.05.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.454 | Continues downward trend |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.56–0.59 | Still static – no new activity |
| EU Producer Ask | 0.62–0.65 | Campaign dreams – analysts sceptical |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | No movement |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Market leader |
🔮 3-Day Forecast (23–25 May 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May | 483 – 493 | 449 – 458 |
| 24 May | 480 – 490 | 446 – 456 |
| 25 May | 478 – 488 | 444 – 454 |
📌 Outlook:
Without weather shocks or sudden buying interest, prices are expected to drift lower.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 ICE futures extend their slide as fundamental demand remains weak.
🧊 EU spot pricing is disconnected from global signals.
🌱 Weather is now the only wild card – prolonged dryness could trigger support.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Wait and negotiate below EUR 0.57/kg – the market favours you.
- 📦 Sellers: Curb campaign expectations – higher prices lack justification.
- 📊 Traders: Short-side still dominant – technical support near USD 480/t.
📍 Summary:
No fuel for a sustainable uptrend. EU dreams of price rallies face hard global realities – only the weather could help.