Sugar Market Drops Sharply – Pressure Increases as EU Spot Prices Hold Firm

📉 Sugar Market Drops Sharply – Pressure Increases as EU Spot Prices Hold Firm

On 7 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures experienced a broad sell-off. The August 2025 contract fell by 1.73% to USD 485.40/t (EUR 451.42/t). All active contracts declined, with front-end pressure intensifying. Meanwhile, EU FCA spot offers remain stubbornly high at EUR 0.57–0.60/kg, deepening the disconnect between global and EU pricing.

---

📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (07.05.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	485.40	-1.73%	451.42
Oct 25	476.00	-1.76%	442.68
Dec 25	474.80	-1.62%	441.56
Mar 26	478.60	-1.50%	445.10
May 26	478.40	-1.32%	444.91
Aug 26	478.10	-1.07%	444.63

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

---

🧭 Market Commentary

📉 Across-the-Board Declines
– Futures fell sharply across all active months, with no technical support holding.
– The market remains under pressure from ample supply and weak demand, especially from Asian buyers.

🇪🇺 EU Prices Unchanged – Policy Support Keeps Gap Intact
– FCA spot prices continue at EUR 0.57–0.60/kg, well above world market equivalents.
– EU market remains protected by tariff structure; no signs of easing in domestic offers.

🛒 Retail Price Stability vs Industrial Premiums
– Central and Eastern Europe retail prices remain below EUR 0.70/kg.
– Industrial buyers question the sustainability of elevated FCA offers.

---

🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 07.05.2025)

Last verified within 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.89 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

---

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (08–10 May 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
08 May	475 – 485	442 – 451
09 May	472 – 482	439 – 448
10 May	470 – 480	437 – 446

📌 Outlook:
The market is likely to remain under pressure without fresh demand or supply-side shocks. Technical breakdown levels are now in play.

---

📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

---

🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar prices continue to slide across maturities.
❌ EU spot offers remain unchanged – despite mounting global weakness.
📉 Retail market signals suggest no pass-through from industrial costs.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Push hard on EU spot offers – world market pricing supports significant discounting.
• 📦 Sellers: Focus on volume-based deals; reduce forward expectations.
• 📊 Traders: Market may retest support at USD 475/t – caution warranted.

📍 Summary: Sugar is under pressure, and the policy divide between the EU and the rest of the world is only widening.

ICE Sugar No. 5 price history (August 2025 contract) for the last 10 trading days:

---

📊 Price History – August 2025 Contract (USD/t & EUR/t)

Datum	Schlusskurs (USD/t)	Veränderung (%)	Schlusskurs (EUR/t)
07.05.2025	485.40	-1.73 %	451.42
06.05.2025	493.80	—	459.23
28.04.2025	505.30	-1.72 %	470.93
25.04.2025	514.00	+1.85 %	478.02
24.04.2025	503.30	-0.50 %	467.07
23.04.2025	505.80	+1.42 %	470.39
22.04.2025	498.90	—	464.98
17.04.2025	506.10	+1.42 %	470.67
16.04.2025	497.30	-1.73 %	462.49
15.04.2025	513.10	-2.79 %	477.20

 

---