Sugar Market Rallies Sharply – ICE No.5 Rebounds on Fund Buying

Sugar Market Surges – ICE No.5 Rallies Above USD 475/t on Technical Buying

On 16 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures posted the strongest daily gain since March. The August 2025 contract surged by 3.02% to USD 479.80/t (EUR 446.21/t), driven by heavy volume, short-covering, and renewed interest from speculative funds. However, EU spot prices remain unresponsive, and structural market pressure persists in physical trade.

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📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (16.06.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	479.80	+3.02%	446.21
Oct 25	471.00	+2.44%	437.03
Dec 25	468.50	+2.01%	435.71
Mar 26	471.50	+1.76%	438.50
May 26	472.00	+1.46%	438.96
Aug 26	471.60	+1.15%	438.59

(Conversion rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🇪🇺 EU Spot Market – Flat Despite Futures Rally

📉 EU FCA spot prices remain stable at EUR 0.50–0.52/kg, with no noticeable response to futures gains.
📦 Industrial buyers remain passive. Most processors are covered through Q3.
🌱 Stolbur disease continues to affect southern German beet areas but has yet to influence spot pricing at scale.

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🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 16.06.2025)

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)
Germany	Kaufland	0.69 €
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €
Belgium	Carrefour	1.60 €
France	Carrefour	1.60 €
Austria	Penny	1.09 €
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €
Hungary	Lidl	0.80 €

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📊 Price Comparison Table

Market	Price (EUR/kg)	Comment
ICE Futures (Aug)	0.446	Strongest close in two weeks – technical lift
EU Spot FCA	0.50–0.52	No movement despite the futures rally
Retail Germany	0.69	Stable – no consumer-level response
Retail Poland	0.42	Still below wholesale – highly competitive

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🌍 Global Drivers

• 📈 Short-covering from funds after weeks of bearish pressure
• 🌾 No supply risks from Brazil or India – exports remain strong
• 💱 Strong USD continues to limit sugar buying in non-dollar markets
• 🧊 Physical demand flat across Europe – futures disconnected from spot

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (17–19 June 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
17 June	475 – 485	441 – 451
18 June	472 – 482	439 – 448
19 June	470 – 480	437 – 446

📌 Outlook:
Short-term gains may continue, but sustainability depends on renewed physical or weather-related support.

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Strong upside day, driven by speculative momentum
📦 The EU market remains fundamentally oversupplied
⚠️ Physical buyers remain reluctant – structure is still bearish

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Continue to secure spot sugar at EUR 0.52/kg or less – no rush to chase
• 📦 Sellers: Use Rally for selective Q3 hedging opportunities
• 📊 Traders: Tactical long setups viable above USD 472/t, but watch for fade if volume drops

📍 Summary:
The sugar market rebounded on momentum, not fundamentals. Without sustained demand, this rally may remain short-lived.