Sugar Market Recovers Further – Futures Rebound Continues Modestly
On 30 May 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 extended its recovery. The August 2025 contract rose 0.53% to USD 476.10/t (EUR 442.77/t). After testing lows below USD 470 earlier this week, sugar futures are slowly stabilising. However, the rebound lacks volume support, and fundamentals remain weak, with spot prices in the EU still under pressure.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,16 - 0,8 mm
FCA 0.57 €/kg
(from CZ)
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.54 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (30.05.2025)
| Contract | Close (USD/t) | Change (%) | Close (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | 476.10 | +0.53% | 442.77 |
| Oct 25 | 473.00 | +0.49% | 439.89 |
| Dec 25 | 474.30 | +0.51% | 441.10 |
| Mar 26 | 478.70 | +0.44% | 445.19 |
| May 26 | 478.50 | +0.38% | 445.00 |
| Aug 26 | 477.80 | +0.21% | 444.35 |
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Slight Price Resistance Below EUR 0.56/kg
📉 FCA spot prices in the EU remain soft at EUR 0.54–0.56/kg, despite the small futures recovery.
📦 Market participants remain cautious: little buying activity and high inventories persist.
🧊 Several traders expect further pressure in June due to expected Brazilian supply waves.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 30.05.2025)
| Country | Supermarket | Price per kg (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Kaufland | 0.69 € |
| Poland | Biedronka | 0.42 € |
| Switzerland | Coop | 1.45 € |
| Belgium | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| France | Carrefour | 1.60 € |
| Austria | Penny | 1.09 € |
| Netherlands | Albert Heijn | 1.04 € |
| Hungary | Lidl | 0.80 € |
📊 Price Comparison Table
| Market | Price (EUR/kg) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| ICE Futures (Aug) | 0.443 | Modest recovery, but far from May highs |
| EU Spot FCA | 0.54–0.56 | No lift yet from futures |
| Retail Germany | 0.69 | Stable for weeks |
| Retail Poland | 0.42 | Well below wholesale |
🌍 Market Drivers & Outlook
🌾 Harvest pressure from Brazil and India still looms large.
💰 Funds are likely reducing short exposure after a six-session sell-off.
📉 But no material shift in demand – especially not in the EU.
🔮 3-Day Forecast (31 May – 2 June 2025)
| Date | USD/t Range | EUR/t Range |
|---|---|---|
| 31 May | 472 – 482 | 439 – 448 |
| 1 June | 470 – 480 | 437 – 446 |
| 2 June | 468 – 478 | 435 – 444 |
📌 Outlook:
The market could consolidate slightly above USD 470/t, but without fresh buying, gains remain fragile.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📈 A cautious rebound is underway but lacks momentum.
📦 Spot pressure in the EU continues – buyers see no urgency.
🌤️ Watch for Brazilian shipping updates and early EU crop signals.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Favour short-term spot or floating contracts below EUR 0.55/kg.
- 📦 Sellers: Take advantage of the bounce to hedge exposure.
- 📊 Traders: Expect resistance near USD 480–482/t – volume still light.
📍 Summary:
A technical bounce, not a turnaround. Structure remains fragile, and weather or trade news would be needed to sustain the move.
