Sugar Market Shows Mixed Signals – Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Uncertainty

Spread the news!

Sugar Market Shows Mixed Signals – Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Uncertainty


Closing Prices on January 28, 2025 (ICE Sugar No. 5) Converted to EUR

Using a USD/EUR exchange rate of 0.92, the latest closing prices for ICE Sugar No. 5 in EUR are as follows:

Contract Closing Price (USD/t) Closing Price (EUR/t) Change (EUR) % Change
March 2025 511.50 470.58 +4.14 +0.88%
May 2025 499.80 459.82 +1.84 +0.40%
August 2025 484.50 445.74 +0.37 +0.08%
October 2025 477.30 439.12 -2.21 -0.50%
December 2025 474.00 436.08 -6.07 -1.39%
March 2026 476.70 438.56 -5.61 -1.28%
May 2026 478.90 440.59 -4.88 -1.11%
August 2026 480.50 442.06 -4.60 -1.04%
October 2026 479.80 441.42 -4.60 -1.04%
December 2026 480.60 442.15 -4.60 -1.04%
March 2027 482.10 443.53 -4.60 -1.04%
May 2027 479.50 441.14 -4.60 -1.04%
August 2027 479.30 440.96 -4.60 -1.04%
October 2027 478.60 440.31 -4.60 -1.04%

Market Analysis: Volatility as Short-Term Gains Clash with Long-Term Weakness

The sugar market is experiencing mixed price movements, reflecting both short-term optimism and longer-term caution:

  1. Short-Term Gains:
    • The March 2025 contract rose by +0.88% to €470.58/t, continuing a recent upward trend in short-term contracts.
    • The May 2025 contract also saw a modest increase of +0.40%, reaching €459.82/t.
  2. Declining Longer-Term Contracts:
    • Contracts from October 2025 onward showed declines of approximately -1.04%, suggesting that longer-term market expectations remain cautious.
    • The December 2025 contract fell to €436.08/t, marking the largest single-day drop of -1.39%.
  3. Key Market Factors:
    • Uncertainty surrounding supply chain logistics is keeping short-term demand elevated.
    • Weakness in long-term contracts suggests that traders anticipate a potential correction in prices once seasonal demand fades.

EU Sugar Market Situation

  • Prices in the EU remain between €0.50/kg and €0.54/kg FCA, with demand still sluggish.
  • The gap between global and EU prices persists, but the strengthening global market may eventually push European prices higher.
  • Retail pricing inconsistencies remain an issue, with some large buyers securing significantly lower prices than smaller market participants.

Market Outlook

📈 Short-Term:

  • The continued rise in short-term contracts indicates buyers securing supply before further increases.
  • Easter demand could push prices even higher in the coming weeks.

📉 Long-Term:

  • The market remains cautious about sustainability, as long-term contracts are showing weakness.
  • If demand slows after peak seasonal purchasing, price correction could follow.

🔍 Strategic Recommendation:

  • Buyers should act quickly if they anticipate further short-term price increases.
  • Producers should prepare for potential volatility in the year’s second half as market conditions shift.

Conclusion

The sugar market remains volatile, with short-term prices continuing to rise, while long-term contracts indicate caution. While EU prices remain stable for now, the global market’s movements could soon lead to price adjustments in Europe. Market participants should closely watch developments and act accordingly.

 

🔹 For logged-out users (not logged in)

Please register for a FREE membership to read this report.

All reports on CMB News are free to read, but you need to create a free account first.
As a registered Free Member, you will get instant access to:
• Daily market reports and news updates
• Price trends for food and feed ingredients
• Regional insights from Europe, Asia, and the USA

For full access to charts, statistics, and detailed price analyses, you can upgrade anytime to a BASIC membership for only €4.99/month.

Register now for free to continue reading.

Please click here to login if you are already a registered member.    

Click here to reach our trading platform CMBroker