Sugar Market Slips Sideways – Front Month Gains, Curve Weakens

📉 Sugar Market Slips Sideways – Front Month Gains, Curve Weakens

On 24 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures delivered a mixed performance. The August 2025 contract rose modestly by 0.24% to USD 504.50/t (EUR 469.18/t), while all subsequent contracts closed in the red. The price curve shows continued weakness beyond Q3, reflecting oversupply, lack of industrial demand, and growing resistance to elevated EU spot prices.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (24.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	504.50	+0.24%	469.18
Oct 25	496.00	-0.08%	461.28
Dec 25	493.10	-0.32%	458.59
Mar 26	494.50	-0.47%	459.89
May 26	491.10	-0.45%	456.72
Aug 26	488.10	-0.39%	454.93

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

🔄 Stagnation in the Curve
– While front-month contracts like August saw limited gains, later months slipped.
– Technical factors influence short-term moves, but fundamentals dominate beyond Q3.

🇪🇺 EU Pricing Still Detached
Despite softening international trends, FCA spot prices remain quoted at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg.
– Buyers increasingly resist offers, as the price gap with global levels surpasses 20%.

🛍️ Retail Prices Remain Unchanged
– Supermarket shelf prices are still stable. No movement reported in any core EU region.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 24.04.2025)

Last verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.47 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Coop Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (25–27 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
25 Apr	498 – 508	463 – 472
26 Apr	495 – 505	460 – 470
27 Apr	490 – 500	456 – 465

📌 Outlook:
Market may remain trapped in a sideways pattern. A catalyst – either political (e.g., Mercosur, Brazil exports) or structural (stock changes) – is needed.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Technical strength in front-month futures remains, but is fragile.
❌ EU spot prices still face buyer resistance.
📉 Retail market signals no justification for further price hikes.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Maintain pressure – international levels support lower pricing.
• 📦 Sellers: Monitor resistance thresholds – volume-based discounts may be needed.
• 📊 Traders: Focus on curve dynamics – longer-dated contracts remain under pressure.

📍 Summary: Stabilisation continues, but the structural divide between EU and global pricing remains unresolved.