“Sugar Market Softens – EU Prices Remain Stable as Demand Stays Weak”
Closing Prices on January 31, 2025 (ICE Sugar No. 5) Converted to EUR
Using a USD/EUR exchange rate of 0.92, the latest closing prices for ICE Sugar No. 5 in EUR are as follows:
Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | % Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
March 2025 | 519.50 | 477.94 | -2.94 | -0.62% |
May 2025 | 502.10 | 461.93 | -1.01 | -0.22% |
August 2025 | 484.70 | 446.72 | -1.75 | -0.39% |
October 2025 | 477.80 | 439.58 | -1.47 | -0.33% |
December 2025 | 477.50 | 439.30 | -0.74 | -0.17% |
March 2026 | 481.80 | 443.26 | -0.46 | -0.10% |
May 2026 | 484.00 | 445.28 | -0.18 | -0.04% |
August 2026 | 485.20 | 446.38 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
October 2026 | 484.10 | 445.37 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
December 2026 | 484.50 | 445.74 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
March 2027 | 486.00 | 447.12 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
May 2027 | 483.40 | 444.73 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
August 2027 | 483.20 | 444.54 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
October 2027 | 482.50 | 443.90 | -0.09 | -0.02% |
Market Analysis: Downward Correction After Recent Rally
After a period of strong price increases, sugar prices are softening, signalling possible market stabilization:
- Noticeable Declines in Short-Term Contracts:
- The March 2025 contract dropped -0.62% to €477.94/t, showing its first significant decline after a strong upward movement in recent weeks.
- The May 2025 contract also fell -0.22% to €461.93/t, indicating a cooling off in short-term demand.
- Minor Weakness Across All Contracts:
- While long-term contracts saw only marginal losses (-0.02%), the consistent declines indicate that the bullish trend may be losing momentum.
- The August 2025 and October 2025 contracts fell by -0.39% and -0.33%, reinforcing a softening pattern.
- Potential Reasons for the Market Pullback:
- Traders may be profiting after the recent rally, causing a short-term decline.
- Global supply concerns have not worsened, reducing pressure on buyers to rush into contracts.
- Seasonal factors, such as preparations for Easter, might not yet exert full influence on the market.
EU Sugar Market: Stability Amid Weak Demand
- The EU sugar market remains calm, with no price changes reported.
- Prices remain between €0.50/kg and €0.54/kg FCA EU, with demand remaining weak.
- The lack of movement in the EU market is likely due to large buyers already securing contracts, meaning there is no urgent purchasing activity.
- Market participants estimate that around 30% of total sugar volumes remain uncovered, indicating that some buying activity is still expected in the coming months.
Market Outlook
📉 Short-Term:
- The recent downward move suggests that prices might stabilize or decline slightly in the coming sessions.
- However, supply chain disruptions or sudden demand surges could trigger another price increase.
📈 Long-Term:
- If global stocks remain steady and demand does not increase significantly, the market could enter a sideways trading phase.
- The Easter buying season could still play a key role in shaping price movements in February and March.
🔍 Strategic Recommendations:
- Buyers should remain cautious, as the market is currently experiencing a natural correction.
- Producers should monitor global trends closely, as further price drops could impact profitability if not anticipated.
Conclusion
The sugar market is seeing its first meaningful decline after a strong upward rally, indicating potential price stabilization. While short-term contracts saw more noticeable drops, the broader market remains resilient.
In the EU, the market remains stable with no price changes. However, with 30% of sugar volumes still uncovered, some buying activity may return in the coming weeks. If global trends continue downward, EU prices could remain unchanged or even face downward pressure.
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