Sugar Market Stabilizes After Recent Rally – Is Another Surge Ahead?
Closing Prices on January 30, 2025 (ICE Sugar No. 5) Converted to EUR
Using a USD/EUR exchange rate of 0.92, the latest closing prices for ICE Sugar No. 5 in EUR are as follows:
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 522.70 | 480.88 | -0.18 | -0.04% |
| May 2025 | 503.20 | 462.94 | -1.56 | -0.34% |
| August 2025 | 486.60 | 447.67 | -1.10 | -0.25% |
| October 2025 | 479.40 | 440.25 | -0.37 | -0.08% |
| December 2025 | 478.30 | 439.24 | +0.28 | +0.06% |
| March 2026 | 482.30 | 443.72 | +0.37 | +0.08% |
| May 2026 | 484.20 | 445.46 | +0.09 | +0.02% |
| August 2026 | 485.30 | 446.48 | -0.37 | -0.08% |
| October 2026 | 484.20 | 445.46 | -0.64 | -0.14% |
| December 2026 | 484.60 | 445.83 | -0.83 | -0.19% |
| March 2027 | 486.10 | 447.21 | -0.83 | -0.19% |
| May 2027 | 483.50 | 444.82 | -0.83 | -0.19% |
| August 2027 | 483.30 | 444.64 | -0.83 | -0.19% |
| October 2027 | 482.60 | 443.99 | -0.83 | -0.19% |
Market Analysis: Prices Enter Consolidation Phase
After the strong upward trend observed in recent days, sugar prices have stabilized, with slight downward movements in most contracts:
- Minimal Short-Term Movement:
- The March 2025 contract remained nearly unchanged at €480.88/t, registering a minor decline of -0.04%.
- The May 2025 contract showed a -0.34% decline, closing at €462.94/t, while August 2025 fell by -0.25%.
- Mixed Trends in Longer-Term Contracts:
- December 2025 and March 2026 contracts recorded slight gains, indicating some long-term support.
- However, contracts from October 2026 declined by -0.19%, suggesting lingering uncertainty for later delivery periods.
- Market Drivers Influencing Stability:
- Traders appear to be consolidating positions following recent rallies.
- Seasonal demand and supply concerns remain factors, but speculators’ profit-taking may temporarily limit further gains.
EU Sugar Market Situation
- EU sugar prices remain between €0.50/kg and €0.54/kg FCA, but demand remains subdued.
- Despite recent global price increases, EU buyers have not yet reacted significantly, preferring to wait and assess market stability.
- Some industry players anticipate a moderate price increase in the coming weeks, driven by global market trends.
Market Outlook
📈 Short-Term:
- Prices appear to be stabilizing, but any further demand increases could reignite upward momentum.
- If global stock levels tighten, we could see renewed price surges in the coming weeks.
📉 Long-Term:
- The market is showing mixed signals, with some contracts gaining while others weaken.
- If EU demand remains sluggish, we may see European prices remain stable despite global fluctuations.
🔍 Strategic Recommendations:
- Buyers should take advantage of the current price consolidation before any potential new increases.
- Producers should monitor speculative movements, as further corrections or short-term rallies could occur.
Conclusion
The sugar market appears to have entered a temporary consolidation phase after a period of sharp increases. While prices remain strong, minor declines suggest traders are reassessing their positions. However, with global supply concerns still present, the risk of renewed upward movement remains high.
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