Sugar Market Stabilizes Slightly – EU Spot Prices Remain Resilient

📈 Sugar Market Stabilizes Slightly – EU Spot Prices Remain Resilient

On 17 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures showed modest gains in the front contracts. The August 2025 contract closed 0.32% higher at USD 498.90/t (EUR 464.98/t). Longer-term contracts showed minor losses, indicating continued uncertainty about demand and macroeconomic pressure. Meanwhile, EU producers continue to hold spot prices above EUR 0.55/kg FCA, defying global market signals.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (17.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
Aug 25	498.90	+0.32%	464.98
Oct 25	492.20	+0.33%	457.75
Dec 25	490.60	+0.35%	456.26
Mar 26	492.90	+0.30%	458.40
May 26	490.70	+0.08%	456.35
Aug 26	488.00	-0.04%	453.84

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Mild Stability – But Not Yet a Turnaround
– Most contracts saw minor price movements, with a slight uptick in the front end.
– Volumes remained subdued, indicating lack of strong positioning ahead of the weekend.

🇪🇺 EU Price Gap Persists
– Spot offers remain at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, 25% above world market equivalent.
– Despite global softness, EU prices have been rising, supported by structural protection and limited imports.

🗨️ Political Perspective:

“As long as the Mercosur agreement is stalled and sugar quotas are restricted, EU sugar will remain expensive – regardless of what the world market says.”

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 17.04.2025)

Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Standard shelf price
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	BILLA	1.49 €	Feinkristallzucker (1 kg)
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.04 €	Kristalsuiker (1 kg)
Switzerland	Coop	1.45 €	Coop Prix Garantie Kristallzucker
Hungary	Tesco Hungary	0.69 €	Kristálycukor, 1 kg

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (18–20 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
18 Apr	495 – 505	460 – 469
19 Apr	492 – 502	457 – 467
20 Apr	488 – 498	454 – 464

📌 Outlook:
Sideways movement expected with risk to the downside if macro sentiment worsens.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar shows early signs of stabilizing.
❌ EU market remains politically protected – not responsive to global pricing.
📉 Until Mercosur is ratified and quotas are relaxed, prices in the EU will remain detached.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Stay focused on international pricing as reference; challenge EU premiums.
• 📦 Sellers: Capitalize on structural support but expect growing buyer resistance.
• 📊 Traders: Expect technical resistance near 500 USD/t – no strong breakout in sight.

📍 Summary: Politically managed markets meet global commodity cycles – and the disconnect is growing.