Sugar Market Under Pressure While Jaggery Stays Firm on Strong Demand

Sugar prices remain under pressure in early June 2026 as weak demand and steady mill selling cap any upside, while the jaggery segment is supported by stronger buying and tighter availability. The divergence highlights a market where refined sugar faces ample supply and cautious industrial offtake, but traditional sweetener demand is underpinning jaggery values. In New Delhi’s wholesale trade, sugar is quoted around USD 45.55–47.12 per quintal, indicating a soft tone amid sufficient market availability and only need-based buying by stockists and industrial users. By contrast, jaggery prices are holding firm at roughly USD 54.45–56.54 per quintal as buyers compete for limited volumes of good-quality product. For the coming days, refined sugar is likely to trade sideways to slightly weak, while jaggery should stay comparatively better supported as long as demand from traditional consuming markets persists.

Prices & Relative Performance

Weak demand and ongoing mill selling continue to pressure refined sugar prices in the New Delhi wholesale market, with trade in a narrow band around EUR 0.46–0.48 per kg (converted from USD 45.55–47.12 per quintal). This suggests buyers are in no rush to build stocks and are comfortable with current availability.

Jaggery, however, is trading significantly higher at roughly EUR 0.55–0.57 per kg, reflecting a notable premium over refined sugar driven by stronger end-user demand and constrained supply of quality lots. The firm jaggery market contrasts with the subdued sentiment in white sugar and underscores a two-speed sweetener complex.

Supply & Demand Drivers

On the supply side, mills are actively offering sugar to the market, adding continuous selling pressure. With adequate availability in wholesale channels, buyers face no immediate concern over physical scarcity, which encourages them to delay larger purchases and limits the potential for a price rebound.

Demand from stockists and industrial users remains strictly need-based, with little evidence of speculative or forward buying. This restrained approach suggests that downstream segments—such as beverages, confectionery, and food processing—are managing inventories tightly, likely in anticipation of stable or slightly weaker prices in the near term.

For jaggery, the picture is different: better demand from traditional consuming regions is meeting relatively lower availability of good-quality material. This combination keeps sellers in a stronger position, allowing them to defend prices even as refined sugar weakens, and maintaining a clear price premium for jaggery over standard sugar.

Fundamentals & Regional Context

Fundamentally, the sugar market in New Delhi reflects a balance characterised more by comfortable supply than by strong consumption. Mill selling is a key short-term driver, as producers appear focused on keeping product moving rather than withholding stocks for higher prices, reinforcing the downward bias.

In contrast, jaggery fundamentals show tighter effective supply, particularly in higher grades, against steady to firm demand from household, traditional sweet, and regional beverage sectors. This supports a structurally stronger price floor for jaggery and may continue to attract substitution away from refined sugar in certain uses, especially where product characteristics favour traditional sweeteners.

European FCA quotations for granulated ICUMSA 45 sugar around EUR 0.45–0.50 per kg suggest broadly aligned price levels with the converted New Delhi wholesale range, indicating that the softness in refined sugar is not an isolated local phenomenon but consistent with a generally well-supplied global environment.

Short-Term Outlook & Weather Note

Over the next few sessions, refined sugar prices in New Delhi are likely to stay range-bound with a mild downside bias as long as mill selling continues and demand remains cautious. Any improvement in bulk industrial buying ahead of seasonal consumption peaks could stabilise values, but for now the market lacks a clear bullish trigger.

Jaggery prices are expected to remain firm in the short term, supported by persistent demand from traditional consuming markets and the lower availability of quality lots. Unless there is a meaningful increase in arrivals or a sudden drop in demand, the current jaggery premium over refined sugar should be sustained.

Weather in key cane-growing belts will become more relevant as the monsoon progresses, but near-term price dynamics are dominated by current inventories and buying behaviour rather than immediate crop concerns.

Trading Outlook

• Industrial buyers: Consider maintaining lean sugar inventories and using dips within the current EUR 0.46–0.48/kg band to cover short-term needs, as supply remains comfortable.
• Stockists: Avoid aggressive accumulation of refined sugar until there are signs of stronger festival or seasonal demand; focus instead on opportunistic short-term trades.
• Jaggery buyers: Expect continued firmness and limited bargains; stagger purchases to manage price risk but avoid over-waiting for a correction that current fundamentals do not yet justify.
• Producers: For sugar, disciplined selling and coordination on timing may help prevent additional downside, while jaggery producers can leverage the current premium but should monitor for demand fatigue at higher price levels.

3-Day Directional Price Indication

• New Delhi wholesale sugar: Stable to slightly weaker in EUR 0.46–0.48/kg equivalent.
• New Delhi jaggery: Firm to marginally higher, maintaining premium near EUR 0.55–0.57/kg.
• EU FCA refined sugar (ICUMSA 45): Mostly stable around EUR 0.48–0.50/kg, with a mild upward bias if freight or logistical costs rise.