Sugar No.11 Eases But Curve Signals Solid Cane Supply Ahead
ICE Sugar No.11 futures eased across the curve, while Brazilian refined sugar FOB São Paulo prices edge higher, signaling firm but better supplied cane fundamentals.
Prices
The ICE Sugar No.11 March 2027 contract settled at 18.22 US‑cent/lb on 12 November 2026, down 0.26 US‑cent or 1.43% from the previous session. The entire 2027 strip softened similarly, with May at 17.72 US‑cent/lb (-1.30%) and July at 17.38 US‑cent/lb (-1.21%). October 2027 closed at 17.40 US‑cent/lb, down 1.09%.
Further out, March 2028 settled at 17.79 US‑cent/lb (-1.01%), with May and July 2028 at 16.81 and 16.33 US‑cent/lb respectively, both down just over 1%. By 2029, prices step down further, with March at 16.77 and May at 16.42 US‑cent/lb, underlining a gently declining forward curve.
Physical refined sugar indications (Brazil)
Physical quotations for Brazilian refined sugar (ICUMSA 45, origin Brazil, FOB São Paulo) continue to edge higher despite the recent futures correction. The latest assessment from 28 October 2024 shows a current price of EUR 0.53/kg versus a previous EUR 0.52/kg, following earlier prints of EUR 0.52/kg (18 October) and EUR 0.51/kg (9 October). This steady step‑up in EUR/kg terms points to firm demand for white sugar and ongoing tightness in high‑quality refined supply.
| Date | Origin | Delivery term | Current price (EUR/kg) | Previous price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-28 | Brazil, São Paulo | FOB | EUR 0.53/kg | EUR 0.52/kg |
| 2024-10-18 | Brazil, São Paulo | FOB | EUR 0.52/kg | EUR 0.51/kg |
| 2024-10-09 | Brazil, São Paulo | FOB | EUR 0.51/kg | EUR 0.52/kg |
Supply & Demand
The downward slope of the ICE Sugar No.11 curve from March 2027 (18.22 US‑cent/lb) to mid‑2029 near 16.25–16.42 US‑cent/lb points to market confidence in gradually improving global cane availability. Higher forward volumes and lower prices in distant contracts are consistent with expectations of sustained Brazilian output, some recovery in Asian production, and continued investment in cane productivity.
At the same time, firm Brazilian refined FOB São Paulo prices around EUR 0.53/kg signal resilient import demand from key deficit regions, particularly the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Asia. Buyers appear willing to pay a premium for reliable refined supply even as raw futures ease, underscoring tight local logistics and refining capacity constraints in some importing countries.
Weather & Regional Outlook
Weather in Brazil’s Center-South cane belt and key Asian cane regions will remain a decisive factor for yields and sugar content in the coming months. Market participants should closely track rainfall patterns and potential anomalies that could affect the crush pace and ATR levels, as any negative surprise could quickly challenge the currently comfortable forward pricing implied by the ICE curve.
Trading Outlook
- Industrial buyers: Use the current pullback in March–October 2027 contracts (down roughly 1–1.5%) to layer in staggered hedges, particularly if your physical exposure is tied to Brazilian FOB refined benchmarks around EUR 0.53/kg.
- Producers: The still‑elevated near‑term levels above 17–18 US‑cent/lb offer opportunities to extend price coverage into 2027–2028, while retaining some upside participation in case of weather‑driven rallies.
- Traders: Watch the spread between No.11 futures and Brazilian refined FOB values; persistent strength in EUR/kg physical premiums alongside a softening futures curve could create basis and arbitrage opportunities.
3‑day price indication
- ICE Sugar No.11: After the latest 1–1.5% decline across 2027–2029 contracts, prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly softer over the next three sessions, barring any abrupt weather or energy market shocks.
- Brazil refined FOB São Paulo: Physical values around EUR 0.53/kg are expected to remain firm and broadly stable in the very short term, supported by continued import demand and limited refined availability.