Sugar No.11 Slides Below 15 USc/lb as Origin Supplies Stay Ample

ICE raw sugar No.11 futures extended their pullback on 13 July, with the October 2026 contract slipping below 15 USc/lb as strong Brazilian crushing and a comfortable nearby balance outweighed lingering concerns over Indian export restrictions. The forward curve remains mildly upward‑sloping into 2028, but the entire strip eased by around 1–1.4% on the day. Firm Brazil Center‑South cane harvesting under mostly dry weather and improving logistics have kept physical availability adequate, tempering bullish bets even as India maintains its ban on bulk sugar exports until at least late 2026. Near‑term, the market appears to be consolidating in a lower range, with weather and policy headlines likely to drive volatility rather than a clear structural deficit signal.

Prices

The ICE Sugar No.11 curve closed lower on 13 July 2026:

• Oct 2026: 14.75 USc/lb (−0.13; −0.88% d/d)
• Mar 2027: 15.66 USc/lb (−0.19; −1.21% d/d)
• May 2027: 15.46 USc/lb (−0.21; −1.36% d/d)
• Mar 2028: 16.48 USc/lb (−0.22; −1.33% d/d)
• Mar 2029: 16.86 USc/lb (−0.19; −1.13% d/d)

The curve shows a modest contango of around 2.1 USc/lb from Oct 2026 to Mar 2029, signalling broadly comfortable medium‑term availability.

(Converted at ~0.92 EUR/USD and 1 lb = 0.4536 kg; values rounded.)

Supply & Demand

Brazil’s Center‑South cane region continues to drive global supply. Recent reports indicate crushing has advanced under predominantly firm, dry conditions, allowing mills to maintain strong production pace ahead of an approaching cold front. Local commentary also notes external demand and recent rains earlier in the season helped support domestic prices, but current fieldwork is largely uninterrupted.

In India, authorities have shifted from restricted to a prohibited regime for most sugar exports, with a ban in place until at least September 2026 to protect domestic availability and support ethanol blending goals. While some tariff‑rate quota (TRQ) shipments to the US and EU are still allowed via state‑managed channels, overall Indian exports to the world market remain negligible, removing a traditionally key supplier from the spot trade.

Mexico’s latest 2025/26 cane harvest report up to 4 July points to steady progress, with output broadly aligned with recent expectations and not signalling a sharp global deficit. Thailand’s medium‑term outlook still foresees lower 2026/27 sugar output versus 2025/26 because of earlier dryness, but this impact is largely beyond the current No.11 board’s nearby tenor.

Fundamentals & Weather

The mild contango in the ICE curve, combined with a day‑on‑day sell‑off across all listed contracts (−0.9% to −1.4%), points to:

• Comfortable nearby raw sugar availability from Brazil and other origins.
• Limited concern over short‑term physical tightness despite Indian export absence.
• Market expectations of only gradual tightening further out, not a severe deficit.

Brazil’s official agro‑climatological bulletin for July highlights relatively favourable conditions in key Southeast and Center‑West regions, with no immediate large‑scale drought signal for cane. In the Center‑South, dry spells currently favour crushing speed, though any prolonged moisture deficits later in the season would warrant attention for the 2026/27 crop sucrose yields.

4–6 Week Outlook & Trading View

With India largely absent from exports but Brazil running strong, the global sugar market looks balanced in the short term. Price action below 15 USc/lb suggests that earlier geopolitical and weather risk premia are being unwound as physical flows adapt.

• Producers (Brazil, Thailand): Consider layering in hedges on 2026/27 output around current contango levels (15.5–16.5 USc/lb; ≈ 310–335 EUR/t), keeping some upside open in case of late‑season weather shocks.
• Industrial buyers/refiners: Use current weakness in Oct 2026–Mar 2027 and the comfortable curve to secure forward cover; stagger purchases to benefit from further dips toward 14.5 USc/lb (≈ 290 EUR/t).
• Traders/speculators: Bias toward range‑trading strategies, selling rallies into 16–16.5 USc/lb and buying near the high‑13s/low‑14s, while closely tracking Brazil weather and any adjustments to India’s export policy.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (key exchanges, in EUR)

• ICE No.11 (nearest month, EUR/t): Slightly bearish to sideways; likely to trade roughly in a 290–305 EUR/t band, tracking macro sentiment and Brazilian crush headlines.
• Europe (refined sugar swaps, EUR/t): Stable to mildly softer, with comfortable imports from Brazil offsetting the absence of Indian supply.
• Brazil export basis (FOB São Paulo, refined, EUR/kg): Previous offers around 0.53 EUR/kg in late 2024 imply current values broadly in line or slightly firmer in EUR terms, supported by domestic costs and currency.